Europe Data Response German Flash CPI (Oct.) October’s rise in German HICP inflation to +0.7% suggests that euro-zone inflation in the same month rose to its highest level since April 2014. But in Germany at least, the rise reflected energy... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rally in Berlin office rents not over yet Prime office rents in the German capital, Berlin, have surged this year. With a positive economic environment and limited development pipeline, the rise in rental values has further to run. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Debt-to-equity swaps won’t resolve China’s debt woes Earlier this month, the Chinese government sketched out how it intends to address the build up of corporate debt and the threat it poses to financial stability and China’s broader economic outlook. On... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Strong Q3 GDP figures: trick or treat? The recent run of relatively upbeat economic data culminated last week with the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP, which was stronger than even we had been expecting. Of course, there are some good... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hawkish, but large easing cycle still looms The Central Bank of Russia’s statement accompanying its decision to keep the policy rate at 10.0% today was predictably hawkish and supports our view that monetary easing will be gradual. But the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique: Debt revelations push up bond yields News that Mozambique is seeking to restructure its debts sent its US$ bond yields soaring. South African markets shrugged off another attempt to depose the respected finance minister. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business & Consumer Survey (Oct.) October’s rise in the EC measure of economic sentiment supports the message from the PMI that euro-zone growth accelerated towards the end of the year, albeit with continued divergence across... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Political risk on the rise in South East Asia There is little sign that the death of the King of Thailand or the increasingly erratic behaviour of President Duterte of the Philippines is, so far at least, having much of an impact on the economy... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Are political attacks on central banks just “noise”? Politicians have made increasingly strident attacks on central banks in many countries recently. But we doubt that these criticisms will lead to significant revisions to monetary policy regimes... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Oct.) This month’s Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) for Central and Eastern Europe suggest that GDP in the region as a whole expanded by a robust 3.5-4% y/y at the start of Q4. The Polish and Czech... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Oct.) October’s rise in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer suggests that GDP growth could accelerate in the near term. But with the full effects of the franc’s strength yet to be felt and deflation risks... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response France, Spain & Austria GDP (Q3, 1st est.) Provisional Q3 GDP data from France and Spain support the message from the business surveys that euro-zone GDP continued to increase at a pretty slow pace. And there are clear signs that the French... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) While consumer confidence fell a little in October, the headline balance is still high by past standards and points to strong retail sales growth at the start of Q4. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly When will the Bank of Japan start tapering? The Bank of Japan recently abandoned its target for expansion of the monetary base but said that it would continue to buy assets at around the same rate as before. This pace of asset purchases will... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revisiting the NPL problem Another sharp rise in the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio in Q2 and recent stark warnings from the IMF have refocussed attention on India’s ailing banking sector. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How fast will inflation rise? Both headline and underlying inflation in Australia will probably rise over the next year and, by boosting economic growth and reducing spare capacity, the recent leap in commodity prices raises the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
