The recent run of relatively upbeat economic data culminated last week with the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP, which was stronger than even we had been expecting. Of course, there are some good reasons to not read too much into these figures. Growth was still very unbalanced, the figures could be revised, and the slowdown may just have been delayed, rather than avoided.
We still expect the economy to slow a little over the next couple of quarters. But businesses and consumers appear so far to be handling uncertainty created by the Brexit vote relatively well. Accordingly, the latest GDP figures reinforce our view that the immediate impact of the vote to leave won’t be particularly severe.
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