Bank of Japan Watch Policy rate to be lowered further At its upcoming meeting, the Bank of Japan is set to slash its inflation forecasts for the coming fiscal year and may push also back the timeframe for hitting the 2% inflation target yet again. While... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q3 Advanced) Today’s GDP figures show that Taiwan’s economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, but with weak global demand set to drag on exports and limited scope for more support from either fiscal or... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Household Spending, Unemployment & Consumer Prices (Sep.) The labour market is getting increasingly tight. However, consumer spending remains sluggish and the slowdown in underlying inflation shows that price pressures continue to moderate. 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: PDVSA bond swap tinkering around the edges The restructuring of the short term dollar debt of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company has reduced the risk of default over the next twelve months, but only at the margin. What’s more, it has added to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fuel to push EM inflation up in coming months EM inflation has been driven largely by moves in commodity prices this year. The decline in food inflation seen in recent months has probably now happened, and rising fuel inflation is set to push EM... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Would an OPEC production cut make a difference? The prospect of the first OPEC production cut since 2009 has sent oil prices back above $50 per barrel, although they have slipped a bit recently as the potential deal shows signs of unravelling... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) The drop in the homeownership rate in the second quarter was reversed in the third, as a favourable economic backdrop allowed for a gradual rise in first-time buyers. As a result, the number of rental... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth still relatively subdued We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by 190,000 in October. Given the recent rebound in labour force participation, however, we suspect that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Economy’s resilience will probably stay the MPC’s hand The resilience of the economy in Q3, combined with a stronger inflation outlook, will probably be enough to persuade a majority of MPC members to leave rates unchanged at next week’s meeting. What’s... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values appear to be stabilising Overall, September provided some reasons to be optimistic. With occupier market conditions holding up well, and monetary policy expected to stay loose, we suspect that the bulk of the capital value... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) Despite the 0.1% m/m decline in headline orders last month, September’s durable goods report is actually a very slight positive as far as third-quarter GDP growth is concerned. 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canada caught in the global backlash against free trade The potential collapse of Canada’s Comprehensive Economic Trade Agreement (CETA) with the European Union would not be a big economic blow, since estimates suggested that even the long-term boost to... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland Consumer Prices (Oct.) Headline Icelandic inflation was stable in October and the core rate fell slightly. But with the economy continuing to strengthen, we think that underlying inflation will pick up in the coming months. 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi dollar bond yields edge down following bumper sale The past month has been dominated by Saudi Arabia’s inaugural international bond sale and, in the first few days of trading, yields on the bonds have edged down in line with those in the rest of the... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Oct.) October’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey gives us another reason to be optimistic that the economy should not lose too much pace in the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, there are anumber of headwinds... 27th October 2016 · 1 min read
