Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Sep.) The RBA may not be too worried by the further decline in employment in September since the data are subject to a couple of distortions and since the unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.7%. But the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Will the Fed rock the boat? We expect risky assets to fare well in 2017/18, even as the yields of US Treasury bonds continue toclimb in response to tighter-than-expected Fed policy. We think the stock market in the US will only... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil and gasoline stocks diverged last week with a large drop in net-imports dragging crude stocks down and a fall in demand helping gasoline inventories build. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains on the side lines The Bank of Canada gave no indication in today’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, even though it lowered its projections for GDP growth and now doesn’t expect the economy... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can we forecast elections and referendums? The failure of opinion polls or bookmakers to predict the UK’s June vote to leave the EU caught many investors by surprise. However, both polls and betting markets have a reasonable track record in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Activity data for September suggest that the Russian recovery may have stalled in the third quarter, which was largely the result of weakness in the industrial sector. Overall, we think that GDP... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The sharp drop in housing starts in September was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector, so shouldn’t ring too many alarm bells. And with building permits seeing a strong pick-up, much of... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on Saudi Arabia’s international bond sale Saudi Arabia’s record-breaking US$17.5bn sale of international bonds will finance around a third of next year’s budget deficit and almost all of the current account shortfall, so the Kingdom’s foreign... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep.) The weaker-than-anticipated batch of Polish activity data for September were by no means a disaster, and the figures suggest overall GDP growth edged down to around 2.8% over Q3 as a whole, compared... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy falters in Q3 August output data suggests that South Africa’s economy did not sustain the rapid growth posted in Q2 into Q3. We expect that growth will be very weak over the remainder of 2016 and into 2017. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Industrials looking vulnerable to a turn in sentiment Commodity prices have generally risen in the last month, despite a further appreciation of the US dollar. That said, the likelihood of a US interest rate hike before end-2016 weighed on precious... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: is Macri already a busted flush? The Argentine government’s recent upward revision to its 2017 budget deficit forecast has added to concerns that President Macri’s reform agenda is already starting to slow after less than a year in... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Steady as she goes The world economy has shrugged off the result of the UK’s EU referendum and looks set to gain some momentum next year. In the US, rising core inflation will prompt the Fed to raise rates more rapidly... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Aug.) The pace of job creation slowed a little in August, but there was little in the data to suggest that a slump in occupier demand or in rental value growth is imminent. 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Aug./Sep.) August’s labour market data showed that the EU referendum still hasn’t provided much of a hit to the jobs recovery. But surveys suggest employment growth will slow further in the coming months which... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
