Europe Economics Update Rise in French unemployment is a worrying sign The recent increase in French unemployment seems unlikely to be reversed rapidly. And while a new government may be elected next year promising job-boosting reforms, its success will be limited by... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment in mainland Europe running at nine-year high The first European investment data for Q3 show that volumes were down sharply compared to the same quarter a year ago. But that was driven by subdued activity in the UK which, being one of the most... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Aug.) House price growth on the official index strengthened a touch August, all but confirming that the Brexit vote caused little damage. But with prices already high and economic growth set to be sluggish... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Sep.) The rise in CPI inflation in September – to its highest level in almost two years – is likely to fuel market concerns about the upward impact of the pound’s fall on prices. However, we don’t think... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) The jump in new lending last month was mostly seasonal and masks a drop in broad credit growth. We expect this slowdown to continue given further signs that the focus of policy makers has shifted away... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand Consumer Prices (Q3) The fall in CPI inflation to 0.2% in the third quarter from 0.4% in the second quarter is in line with the RBNZ’s forecast and means the Bank will follow through on its suggestion that interest rates... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the economic fallout from Samsung’s problems The recent problems at Samsung Electronics, which culminated in last week’s decision to scrap production of its premium Note 7 smartphone, could shave around 0.1-0.2% percentage points off GDP growth... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will global demand remain weak? Advanced economies have been suffering from weak underlying demand, partly due to a mix of demographic and technological changes. Looking ahead, there is some scope for a rebound in private investment... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Policy divergences to favour Swedish krona The Nordic and Swiss economies’ reasonable economic performance, low public debt and stable political backdrop should help to maintain their safe haven status. But there will be some marked economic... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity to recover next year The housing market is starting to recover from the initial shock of the Brexit vote. But with prices already high, we don’t expect a return to business as usual. Rather, we think house price growth... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Although industrial production only edged higher in September, the 1.8% annualised rebound for the third quarter as a whole provides further evidence that the economy has regained some momentum, after... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Exports showing signs of recovery Trade data for September showed the strongest annual growth in export values in almost two years. Looking ahead, exports should continue to recover, but the government’s target of nearly doubling... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Bank lending picked up in September and a broader measure of private sector credit expanded at the fastest pace since the launch of QQE in Q2. Meanwhile, low returns at home have encouraged Japanese... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Cautious SNB won’t hike rates for some time yet Fears that domestic price pressures might prompt the Swiss National Bank to tighten monetary policy proved unfounded today as it left its interest rate target at 0.25%. The Bank’s tone was gloomier... 16th October 2016 · 1 min read
