UK Economics Chart Pack Q3 growth slowdown won’t be too sharp Both survey and hard data published this month suggest that GDP will grow moderately in Q3, avoiding too sharp of a slowdown from Q2’s upwardly-revised quarterly rate of 0.7%. Indeed, the 0.4% monthly... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (5th Oct. 16) Crude oil stocks posted yet another surprise fall last week, despite a further reduction in demand from refineries. However, gasoline stocks rose slightly. 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are bonds to a shift in monetary policy? It is sometimes argued that government bond yields in the advanced economies have been driven down to very low levels by exceptionally loose monetary policy and that yields are bound to soar once... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC talks of rate hikes, but policy to remain loose Today’s data from the Halifax showed that house prices were more or less flat on the month in September. Therefore, it echoes the evidence provided by other indices that house prices have proved... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Aug.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Sep.) Although the trade deficit widened slightly to $40.7bn in August, from $39.5bn, net external trade is now on track to make a big contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. Elsewhere, the big rebound in... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bond yields are likely to remain much lower than in the past 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $1.9bn in August, from $2.2bn, was entirely due to price effects, with the real deficit actually widening slightly. Exports increased by 0.6% m/m in nominal... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The 4.1% m/m rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in September does nothing to change the fact that mortgage demand has stalled since the start of the year. A lack of inventory is... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market looking resilient Demand in the housing market is retrenching after a brief period of post-referendum nerves, as evidenced by the rapid rebound in buyer sentiment. That said, buyer and seller numbers still fell in... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Icelandic interest rates to be left unchanged until mid-2017 The uncertainty surrounding capital account liberalisation suggests that the Central Bank of Icelandwill keep interest rates unchanged for a while longer. But with inflationary pressures set to build... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Hopes of market rebalancing boost energy commodities OPEC’s announcement that it would reintroduce output quotas at its next meeting in November and the subsequent jump in oil prices stole the headlines in September. But coal prices have surged even... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary policy and conditions still ultra-loose Global monetary conditions are still exceptionally accommodative and are set tor emain so even if the Fed raises rates in December, as we think is likely. Sovereign bond yields are close to record... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep. 16) August’s data suggest that euro-zone retail sales growth picked up in Q3, whileSeptember’s Composite PMI implies that growth in the wider economy slowedonly slightly. But headline inflation will soon... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report of Services (Sep.) September’s Markit/CIPS services survey added to other evidence suggesting tha tthe post-referendum economic slowdown has not been too severe. While it perhaps reduces the likelihood of another rate... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What would President Trump mean for Japan? We wouldn’t be overly concerned about a US tariff on Japanese imports should Donald Trump become president, as Japanese manufacturers mostly serve their US customers from their US subsidiaries. By... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Sep.) The drop in PMIs from the Gulf last month will raise concerns that the worst of the economic slowdown may not yet have passed. Meanwhile, the PMIs brought further evidence that Egypt’s economy is... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
