After a sharp fall in August, the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September should soothe fears that the US economy is headed for a serious downturn. Nevertheless, the index remains at a muted level and the other news today that construction spending contracted in both July and August shows that the factory sector is not the only misfiring part of the economy. As it stands now, we estimate that third-quarter GDP growth was between 2.0% and 2.5% annualised.
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