Latin America Economics Update Food inflation to fall in Brazil and Colombia, but rise in Mexico Food inflation should ease over the coming months in Brazil and Colombia, which will help to bring down the headline inflation rates in both countries. By contrast, in Mexico, we expect the lagged... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM central banks remain in easing mode Emerging market policymakers have been in loosening mode in recent months, with our EM interest rate diffusion index showing that more EM central banks cut rates than hiked again in August. Rate cuts... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank minutes suggest no extension of asset purchases The minutes of the Riksbank’s latest meeting revealed that at least half of the Executive Board thought that there is little need for the Bank to extend asset purchases beyond December. Indeed... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary upgraded but bond rally limited The rally in Hungary’s financial markets following its return to investment grade last Friday has grabbed the headlines, but in practice most of the fall in its dollar bond spreads happened in 2012-14... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Aug.) The improvement in the public finances in August is unlikely to continue as the post-referendum economic slowdown begins to bite and Chancellor Hammond probably eases the fiscal squeeze in the Autumn... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontiers turn to international bond markets An increasing number of frontier markets are turning to the international bond markets as they look to paper over the cracks in their finances. Argentina got the ball rolling earlier this year when it... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Aug.) August’s within-target inflation reading of 5.9% y/y makes it all but certain that the Reserve Bank will hold its key interest rate at 7.00% at its meeting tomorrow. 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will have to lower policy rate further The Bank of Japan’s decision to replace its target for the monetary base with a target for 10-year government bond yields has prolonged the lifespan of QQE. However, it hasn’t improved the near term... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Aug.) The contraction in both export and import values eased last month despite the ongoing price drag from the stronger yen. Export volumes are holding up well as the bulk is invoiced in currencies other... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar strength weighs on sentiment A stronger dollar, a reduction in risk appetite and a scaling back of expectations that oil producers will actually limit output made it a tough month for most commodities. However, the price of gold... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Domestic factors unlikely to cause rupee slump The rupee has been stable against the US dollar in recent months. Looking ahead, suggestions that domestic factors, including calls from within government for a devaluation of the currency and the RBI... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A look ahead to Saudi Arabia’s international bond issuance Saudi Arabia’s upcoming international bond sale has sparked a lot of investor interest and we estimate that the Kingdom will manage to sell its 10-year debt for a relatively low yield of 3.50-3.75%... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q2) The ABS measure of house prices supports other evidence showing that the housing market has found a new lease of life. That said, the market is not as strong as widely believed and it’s more likely to... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be concerned about bonds in Asia? The stripped spreads of dollar-denominated government bonds in Asia are nearing the lows seen prior to both the Asian and Global Financial Crises, but we do not think this signals that another major... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
