Europe Commercial Property Update Outlook for German retail rents still positive With the exception of Berlin, prime retail rents in Germany’s four main cities have stagnated over the past year or so. But with a healthy economic outlook, we do not think that this is a sign that... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending growth slowdown not too sharp Consumer spending growth should slow in the coming few quarters as a result of a number of headwinds. Indeed, we expect the Brexit vote to cause some firms to put a halt on hiring decisions, slowing... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Jul.) The mild pick-up in Peruvian economic activity growth in July was driven by a rebound in the country’s notoriously volatile fishing sector. Nonetheless, we expect growth in the rest of the economy to... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Rising stocks weigh on copper prices The ongoing surge in LME copper stocks was the key development last month and contributed to renewed bearish sentiment towards the metal. In contrast, stocks of all the other metals have fallen over... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 16) The weakness in retail sales and industrial production in August underline that the rebound in third-quarter GDP growth could be weaker than previously hoped, which is another reason for the Fed to... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities under fire, as attention turns back to Fed Emerging market (EM) equities have fallen in recent weeks as investors’ reacted to mixed signals from FOMC members regarding the outlook for monetary policy in the US. 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are credit scores on mortgages trending up? Somewhat surprisingly, according to Ellie Mae the average credit score for successful mortgage applications has been trending up since the beginning of the year. But a closer look shows that rise is... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus What next for Brazil? Brazil’s economy is bottoming out and, while the recovery will be slow going, our 2017 GDP forecast is a bit above consensus. Inflation should ease and, although COPOM will move gradually in the first... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC leaves the door open for another rate cut in November While the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) decision to leave interest rates and the scale of its asset purchases unchanged this month came as no surprise after recent upbeat economic data and the... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q2 2016) GDP figures published today show economic growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply inthe second quarter of 2016. Given the serious doubts that remain about the reliabilityof the data, we are wary of reading... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jul.) & Final CPI (Aug.) July’s euro-zone goods trade data suggest that net exports were a drag on GDP growth at the start of Q3. Looking ahead, we expect the trade surplus to narrow further this year as global demand growth... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Despite August’s small dip in retail sales, the continued strong trend in spending adds to other evidence suggesting that UK consumers have largely shrugged off the vote for Brexit. 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Early signs point to deepening contraction in Q3 Activity data for July and August suggest that the economic situation in Nigeria deteriorated going into the third quarter. The economy will probably continue to contract over the duration of 2016. 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB on hold, but set to renew currency interventions The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave policy on hold came as no surprise as easing Brexit fearsand the ECB’s inaction have led upward pressure on the franc to abate. But the SNB made clear that... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Improving outlook unlikely to prevent further rate cuts While the chance of a September interest rate cut was never particularly high, a stronger than expected rise in GDP in the second quarter all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Aug.) After adjusting the data to strip out the temporary boost from the Census, we estimate that employment fell by around 14,000 in August. While we aren’t too concerned about the outlook for employment... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
