China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) A renewed pick-up in credit growth last month will add to the growing sense among investors that the near-term outlook for China’s economy is fairly bright. Credit growth is still likely to slow over... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jul./Aug.) Given the lags involved, it’s not particularly surprising that the latest data showed that labour market activity has yet to suffer from the apparent post-referendum slowdown in economic growth. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will economic pain prompt a shift in Saudi oil policy? The slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy has prompted the authorities to soften their opposition to a deal to freeze oil output. While a deal is more likely than it was earlier this year, there are... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand holds policy rate, but easing can’t be ruled out The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.50% today, but with growth set to slowand inflationary pressures very low, further easing is likely in the coming quarters. 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Aug.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose for the seventh consecutive month in August, and is set to accelerate further over the near term. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Sep.) September’s Westpac measure of consumer confidence shows that the rise in August was sustained. This should help to calm concerns about the health of the household sector following the slowdown in... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Inflation targeting – time for a change? The Reserve Banks of Australia and New Zealand are likely to ignore suggestions that they should lower their inflation targets since that would drive inflation even lower. Targeting nominal GDP growth... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Are valuations really stretched? Although the valuations of many assets are higher than their long-run averages, we don’t think sharp falls in their prices are likely. This is because we believe their equilibrium valuations have... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What are the market implications of lower real interest rates? 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Should we be worried about low inflation expectations? As euro-zone inflation picks up over the coming months, short-term inflation expectations should rise.But long-term expectations are less responsive to movements in current inflation and are likely... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Falling mining output to drag on regional recovery Q2 GDP data released across Latin America over the past month revealed that the mining sector was a key drag on growth in a number of economies. This looks set to continue as the lagged impact of... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor (Aug.) Metals prices received a boost today as August activity data out of China surprised on the upside. There is now clear evidence that the monetary and fiscal stimulus enacted earlier in the year is... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Making sense of higher asset valuations Although the valuations of bonds and equities are higher than their long-run averages, we don’t think sharp falls in their prices are likely. This is because we believe their equilibrium valuations... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Official House Price Index (Jul.) and MLAR statistics (Q2) The official house price index recorded a modest drop in house prices in July, immediately following the referendum, consistent with our forecast that house price inflation will slow sharply during... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch OPEC’s past form points to disappointment in Algiers Speculation about a potential deal to freeze output at the unofficial OPEC meeting at the end of September has been largely responsible for the increase in oil prices over the past month. This Energy... 13th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone Employment (Q2) The fact that ZEW investor sentiment was unchanged in September despite the easing of fears about the effects of Brexit adds to signs that underlying growth in the German economy is set to slow. 13th September 2016 · 1 min read