Global Markets Update Is a stable stock market a sign of trouble ahead? The low level of the VIX index has led some to conclude that investors are being complacent about the risk of a major correction in the S&P 500. However, the fact that expected volatility is low by... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Asian markets calm following Yellen’s comments Asian financial markets generally shrugged off last Friday’s comments from US Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in which she suggested the likelihood of an early rate hike in the US has increased. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The unchanged headline inflation rate in August highlights the fact that price pressures in the euro-zone remain weak and boosts the case for more monetary easing from the ECB. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again It’s been a very calm month for financial markets in most of Emerging Europe. One exception, however, is Ukraine where renewed tensions with Russia have caused the currency to weaken and dollar bond... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy plunges into broad-based recession The contraction of Nigerian GDP in Q2 was driven by a sharp fall in oil output, but the data shows that other sectors of the economy are also suffering. Economy policy has made a bad situation worse. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Aug. 16) While data from Nationwide point to resilient house price growth in August, leading indicators suggest that this won’t last. Indeed, with house price expectations muted and the economy set to weaken... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2) The hit to Norway’s GDP growth from lower oil prices appears to be fading. Nevertheless, with growth still fairly slow and inflation set to fall sharply, we still expect the Norges Bank to loosen... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Aug.) Consumer confidence recovered a little in August in another sign that consumers haven’t been too unsettled by the leave vote. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Danish GDP (Q2 16) In Q2 Danish GDP growth was worryingly dependent on external demand and a drop in imports, while survey indicators suggest that the economy will struggle to grow over the coming months. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Subdued demand bolsters stocks The big news in the last month has been a sharp move up in exchange stocks of copper and a renewed slump in tin inventories. However, the bigger picture is that exchange stocks of metals have not... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What conditions will be attached to Egypt’s IMF deal? The Egyptian authorities seem close to securing an IMF deal, but the conditions attached to lending have been a stumbling block to a bailout in the past and opposition has already started to emerge... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Aug.) While the drop in today’s Shoko Chukin survey partly reflects seasonal patterns, the index remains consistent with falling industrial production. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Resetting reform priorities after the GST The passage of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) bill this month, 10 years after its introduction, was arguably the biggest legislative victory to date for the Modi government. Looking ahead, the... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) While industrial production was unchanged in July, firms’ forecasts for the following months suggest that the economy started expanding again in the third quarter. However, this alone is unlikely to... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Danish GDP (Q2 16) In Q2 Danish GDP growth was worryingly dependent on external demand and a drop in imports, while survey indicators suggest that the economy will struggle to grow over the coming months. 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q2 16) The hit to Norway’s GDP growth from lower oil prices appears to be fading. Nevertheless, with growth still fairly slow and inflation set to fall sharply, we still expect the Norges Bank to loosen... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
