Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household sector unlikely to offset weakness elsewhere Last week’s news that consumer confidence in Australia surged to a three year high provided an encouraging signal about the health of the household sector. However, while we expect consumption growth... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Today’s inflation figures confirm that the recent moderation in price pressures can no longer be blamed on cheaper energy. While economic activity is on the mend, the slump in import prices suggests... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latest rise in food inflation should prove short-lived Food inflation has risen further in several economies in Latin America over the past month. The increase has been especially sharp in Brazil and Colombia, but food inflation has also edged up in Chile... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Heating up The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a further acceleration in growth last month. Recent unusually hot weather may have played a part in lifting the CAP by giving a short-lived... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What does the rest of the year hold in store for oil prices? Oil prices are now back at around $50 per barrel (for Brent) but they have been volatile over the last few months. Speculation about a deal to freeze output, high stocks and outages in production have... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Political tensions come to the fore Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Shrugging off Brexit worries for now While early post-referendum indicators of consumer spending have been fairly upbeat, spending growth is still set to slow following the vote to leave the EU. Labour market conditions are likely to... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by a more sustainable 180,000 in August. Otherwise, we suspect that after remaining unchanged in recent months, the unemployment rate... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul. 2016) Although the strong rise in durable goods orders in July was partly due to a massive rebound in the ever-volatile commercial aircraft category, the details of the report provide tentative evidence... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Some positive signs from occupier markets The fall in the exchange rate as well as policy makers’ response to the referendum result have helped property look more attractive relative to gilts and equities. Thus, if we are right in thinking... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Aug. & Q3) Despite the improvement in todays’ CBI Distributive Trades Survey, the figures still point to a slowdown in the official measure of retail sales growth after July’s strength. 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian financial markets welcome IMF deal Financial markets in Egypt have rallied over the past month after the government reached an agreement with the IMF over a US$12bn financing package. Equities have risen, spreads on dollar-denominated... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Jul.) China’s gold imports resumed their upward trend last month. In contrast, India’s demand remained subdued and this weakness probably has persisted through August. That said, we expect demand from India... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Aug.) August’s sharp fall in the German Ifo survey points to a slowdown in annual German economic growth to around 1%. 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update EU trade deal unlikely to revive Indonesia’s tin exports Some have argued that a new trade deal between the EU and Indonesia may arrest the decline in the latter’s exports of tin. However, structural issues constraining tin exports mean that it is unlikely... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
