Despite better June, GDP probably still fell sharply in Q2

Our calculations suggest that monthly GDP rebounded by 0.5% m/m in June which, if GDP in the first two months of the quarter was unrevised, would translate into a 1.5% annualised decline in the second quarter as a whole. Unfortunately, there are plenty of reasons to suspect that GDP in April and May will be revised lower, resulting in a quarterly annualised decline of at least 2%.

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