US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Jul. 16) Headline CPI inflation remained unusually low in July and the latest drop in energy prices will keep it below 2% for longer than we first thought. Core consumer prices rose by 0.1% m/m, which was... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slow take-up to limit impact of Shenzhen-HK Connect Today’s approval of a link between stock markets in Hong Kong and Shenzhen may boost market sentiment and is a welcome signal that policymakers are keen to press on with financial reform as concerns... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul. 16) Housing starts managed to rise modestly for the second month in a row in July, but their overall performance remains lacklustre. But with so few existing homes for sale and the labour market creating... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) At first glance, the 0.5% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales volumes looks encouraging, but downward revisions to sales in the first two months of the quarter mean that the decline in second-quarter... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Official UK House Price Index (Jun.) Today’s data point to solid house price growth ahead of the referendum. And while London lost the top spot, price growth there still recorded double-digit gains. Yet with prices already high, and the... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Aug.) & Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) August’s German ZEW investor survey shows that sentiment has partly recovered from July’s Brexit-related decline, but it still points to a sharp slowdown in German GDP growth to come. 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) CPI inflation continued on its upward path in July and looks set to breach the 2% target in the first half of next year, as sterling’s fall pushes consumer prices up. 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What can financial market volatility tell us about pricing? Equity market volatility can be a proxy for economic uncertainty which, in turn, should anticipate movements in all-property yields. This relationship suggests that, given the heightened uncertainty... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q2) The slightly stronger-than-expected Czech Q2 GDP growth figure, of 2.5% y/y, reinforces our view that, while the economy is likely to slow a little further in the coming quarters, the strength of... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jul.) Indian wholesale price inflation recorded another sharp rise in July, and it looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. This supports our view that there is little scope for further... 16th August 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Jun.) The slowdown in Peruvian economic activity in June suggests that GDP growth eased to around 3.6% y/y in Q2, from 4.4% y/y in Q1. Nonetheless, this largely reflects weakness in volatile primary sectors... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will political tensions halt the outperformance of Russian bonds? 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why our house price forecast is top of the pack Our expectation for a 6% rise in house prices this year puts us in the top eight out of 105 forecasters. But with market conditions very tight, and only a small acceleration in monthly gains needed to... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s stagnation may soon turn to recession Italy’s economic recovery is slowing. And with big risks to the near-term outlook from the banking sector and the forthcoming referendum on constitutional reform, we suspect that the economy is... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update PGMs rally might have gone too far After falling sharply at the end of 2015, the prices of platinum and palladium have risen by over 20% since the start of 2016. While we remain positive on the medium-term prospects for PGMs, we think... 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) Thailand’s growth slowed last quarter, and the recent bombings in some of the country’s key tourist destinations present a significant downside risk to economic activity. 15th August 2016 · 1 min read
