Africa Economics Update Kenya: Rates on hold, cuts still in the cards The Central Bank of Kenya decided to hold its key rate at 10.50% today, but we expect that the bank will cut rates later this year as inflation remains within target and Kenya’s external... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Surge in real consumption drives Q2 GDP growth Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 2.5% annualised, thanks primarily to a massive 4.5% surge in real consumption. The latter would mark the biggest quarterly gain... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update “Premature de-industrialisation”: red light or red herring? There is some evidence to suggest that countries are reaching “peak” industrialisation at lower rates of income than in the past. However, this doesn’t explain the recent slowdown in EM GDP growth... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Stronger end to Q2 The Capital Economics China Activity Proxy signals that economic growth was stable in Q2 but it does appear to been accelerating at the end of the quarter, which supports the view that a pick-up is on... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: fresh devaluation on the way Speculation has mounted in recent weeks that the Egyptian pound could be on the cusp of (another) devaluation. The initial rumours were sparked by the central bank governor, Tarek Amer, who suggested... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q3) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for July and Q3 showed that manufacturers are not immune from the Brexit-related economic slowdown. But whether their gloominess persists now that the dust has settled... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (July) July’s Ifo survey supported the message from the PMI that German economic activity has not yet suffered from the UK’s Brexit vote. But the dip in businesses’ expectations may suggest that a slowdown... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How does Brexit affect our European commercial property forecasts? A prolonged period of looser monetary policy in the wake of Brexit will mean that prime European commercial property capital values will surpass our previous forecasts, despite weaker rental growth. 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) The sharp strengthening of the exchange rate since the start of the year continued to depress trade values in June. However, falling trade values mask a stabilisation in trade volumes. 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two things the RBA could learn from the RBNZ The recent experience of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides two lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia. First, don’t dither when it comes to making decisions otherwise you’ll be punished by a... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Turkey coup aside, EMs have become more stable The failed military coup in Turkey has sent local financial markets into a tailspin and re-focused investors’ attention on broader EM political risk. However, political stability in emerging markets... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Extent of wildfire disruption about to become clearer This is the week that we will finally discover just how badly the economy was hit by the Alberta wildfires in May, which caused the shutdown of the majority of oil production in the Fort McMurray area... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly One month after the referendum The economy has clearly taken a hit from the vote to leave the EU last month. Granted, sales values have held up well according to John Lewis, and the latest Bank of England Agents’ Scores were... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Early Brexit signals provide some comfort Last week’s euro-zone and country level data releases started to lift some of the heavy fog on the initial impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the currency union’s economy. The early signs are... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strength of consumption Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to a more respectable 2.5% annualised, following a disappointing 1.1% gain in the first quarter. But be aware that the BEA will... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
