GDP growth boosted by strength of consumption

Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to a more respectable 2.5% annualised, following a disappointing 1.1% gain in the first quarter. But be aware that the BEA will also be releasing its annual revisions this week, which could see first-quarter GDP growth revised up, as the statisticians try to iron out any ‘residual seasonality’ in the data. If the first-quarter data are revised higher, then second-quarter GDP growth could end up coming in below expectations. For that reason we would urge clients to focus on the reported average growth rate over the first half of the year.