Extent of wildfire disruption about to become clearer

This is the week that we will finally discover just how badly the economy was hit by the Alberta wildfires in May, which caused the shutdown of the majority of oil production in the Fort McMurray area. Our calculations point to a 0.3% m/m decline in monthly GDP in May. Even allowing for a decent rebound in economic activity in June, we estimate that second-quarter GDP contracted at a 1.0% annualised pace.

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