Commodities Weekly Dollar strength takes some steam out of prices With a few exceptions, the prices of industrial commodities have taken another hit this week, pressured by profit taking and renewed strength in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the ECB’s decision to keep... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Further upside for gold and silver prices We expect a combination of looser monetary policy in the euro-zone, the UK and Japan and building inflationary pressures in the US to boost the prices of gold and silver over the next year or so... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Confidence takes a knock post-referendum The near-term outlook for the consumer recovery has weakened since the UK voted to leave the EU last month. Indeed, consumers’ confidence in the economic outlook deteriorated sharply, and the drop in... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Prospects for world trade growth worsen The latest available data show that world trade, which has been pretty stagnant for the past eighteen months or so, remains depressed. And with the UK’s Brexit vote having further reduced the chances... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB delays again, but further hike still likely The weakness of South Africa’s economy prompted the MPC to hold off hiking interest rates today, but we still think there is room for additional monetary tightening later in the year. For now, we... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Glut of oil products to weigh on demand for crude The tightening of the oil market since the start of the year has been the main driver of the price rally over the last few months. However, there are valid concerns that stocks of oil products are... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB set to act in September After leaving policy on hold today, the ECB also stopped short of promising imminent policy easing. But President Draghi reiterated that the Bank is ready to act and we believe that it will up the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (July) The uptick in Brazilian inflation in the first half of this month was modest but it will reinforce the hawkish tone set by last night’s COPOM statement. Our base case is that interest rate cuts will... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: currency reforms fall short of high hopes Nigeria’s new exchange rate policy falls far short of the authorities’ bold promises and we think the currency will have to fall further over the coming 12 months or so. 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Higher prices could dampen China’s metals imports June was another strong month for China’s metals imports. In some cases, volumes dipped, but this may have been a response to rising prices rather than a sign of weaker underlying demand. 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia leaves rates on hold, but further easing likely Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold today, but further loosening is likely sooner rather than later. We think the shift to a new policy rate, which formally comes into effect next month... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Low oil prices hitting home Oil prices have been low for some time now, but the past month has brought further evidence that this new reality is starting to hit home in energy-exporting frontier markets. Recently-released data... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Bond market rally likely to run out of steam Indian bond yields have recently fallen to their lowest levels since 2013, in large part due to anticipation that the successor to Governor Raghuram Rajan at the RBI will be more dovish. But with the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putting the Turkish market sell-off into context Turkey’s financial markets have fallen sharply following Friday night’s attempted coup and the subsequent backlash by the government, but the reaction appears relatively mild given the enormity of... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
