UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun 2016) June’s RICS survey saw several key indicators fall to post-crisis lows, and was broadly consistent with our view that Brexit will drive down housing market activity and cool the rate of house price... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Strains in Saudi Arabia’s balance of payments starting to ease Saudi Arabia’s current account position deteriorated at the start of this year due to lower oil prices, but even taking this into account the underlying balance of payments position improved. We... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Trade tariffs pose limited threat to euro-zone exports With the exception of the automobile and agricultural industries, WTO tariffs are low enough to imply that even if no trade deal is reached, Brexit will do little direct damage to euro-zone exporters... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Production & Current Account (May) Despite May’s sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production, growth over Q2 as a whole appears to have been weaker than in Q1. Meanwhile, May’s balance of payments data showed another... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jun.) Wholesale price inflation rose sharply in June, and looks set to accelerate further over the coming months. This reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary loosening. 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea in wait-and-see mode Following its move last month to cut rates in response to rising downside risks to growth, the Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.25%. We think it will take... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun.) Although the labour market is probably a bit weaker than June’s figures suggest, we’re not too concerned when the forward-looking indicators remain healthy. That said, the high share of part-time... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2 Advanced) Today’s advanced estimate of Singapore’s second quarter GDP suggests the economy has gained some momentum after a sluggish start to the year . However, domestic headwinds are building and a robust... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Making the most of weaker currencies? The weakening of most Latin American currencies has helped the region’s economies adjust to the terms of trade shock caused by the drop in global commodity prices. But while weaker currencies mean... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Structural improvements mean EMs have more fiscal leeway The structure of public finances across emerging markets has improved over the past couple of decades. As such, while EM governments that have experienced large blowouts in budgets can’t postpone... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Jul. 16) While inventories of US crude fell again last week on the back of falling net imports, sizeable increases in gasoline and distillate fuel stocks grabbed the headlines. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit vote clouds the outlook for trade agreements The UK referendum result may ultimately lead to the British government pursuing more liberal trade policies with the rest of the world. But progress is likely to be very slow. Meanwhile, the prospect... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily UK MPC likely to ease policy despite calm after vote for Brexit 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada cuts GDP growth forecast The Bank of Canada shocked no-one with its decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50% today, but we still anticipate that it will eventually be forced to cut rates again, probably in the... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How big is the threat from property? The commercial property sector has so far been the main focal point of Brexit concerns. But there are reasons to be hopeful that its problems won’t push the broader economy into a deep recession. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Post-Brexit housing market: when will we know? It will be several weeks before we start to get hard data on how the housing market has reacted to the EU referendum outcome. Even then, the initial data may lend themselves to many different... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
