Japan Economics Update Two-thirds majority no reason to cheer The landslide victory for Japan’s ruling coalition in the Upper House election is not necessarily good news for the economy, as lawmakers’ time and energy may now be focused on revising the pacifist... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Will China worries resurface? We expect China’s economy to slow further next year and the renminbi to continue depreciating. Nonetheless, the risk of a “hard landing” or large currency devaluation is low, so China is unlikely to... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Jun.) Consumer price inflation declined slightly last month, owing to a drop in food inflation. Looking ahead, while we expect inflation in coming months to be close to the rates seen so far this year... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) The renewed decline in “core” machinery orders in May suggests that capital spending fell yet again last quarter. 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment not coming to the rescue The latest Bank of Canada surveys support our view that falling business investment, particularly in the oil and gas sector, will weigh on the economy in the second half of the year. Making matters... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices vulnerable to a reassessment of US rate outlook Despite a spectacular 287,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, Fed funds futures are still only pricing in a 50% chance of a US interest rate hike by the end of 2017. This dovish spin allowed the... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumer spending will continue to drive GDP growth The latest evidence suggests that GDP growth accelerated to around 3% annualised in the secondquarter. Furthermore, the rebound in both of the June ISM surveys suggests that this strengtheningin... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (June 2016) The 700 decline in employment in June was below consensus expectations of a 5,000gain, in part because of a fall back in the number of public administration workers asthe majority of temporary census... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June 2016) The 287,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in June suggests that the sharp slowdown in the preceding months was nothing more than ablip. Fed officials will want to see evidence of a more sustained... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Support for the economy taking shape The headlines this week have concentrated on the negative impact that Brexit has had on sterling and confidence, as well as the temporary suspension of trading in a number of commercial property funds... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is there a way to avert a full-blown banking crisis? There is no easy solution to the euro-zone’s banking problems, but the risks of doing nothing are too large for policymakers to simply sit on their hands. We think that policymakers will find a way to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly A Goldilocks depreciation? The fall in the pound since the EU vote has been widely presented as a negative development. Not only is it being seen as a general indicator of Brexit vote fall-out, but many forecasters appear to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Chile Consumer Prices (Jun.) The drop in Brazil inflation, from 9.3% in May to 8.9% in June, should be followed by further falls over the coming months. That said, our view remains that the central bank will resist lowering... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What options does Taiwan’s central bank have left? Taiwan’s central bank is running out of good options as it looks to boost an economy which has struggled badly over the past year. We see little prospect of a decent recovery in the coming quarters. 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update How could Brexit affect North Sea oil production? The slump in oil prices since 2014 poses a bigger threat to North Sea output than the UK’s vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). However, heightened uncertainty, potential tax changes and the possibility... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
