China Data Response FX reserves (Jun.) The surprise increase in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month could be the result of the People’s Bank marking to market the value of some reserve assets at the end of June, in... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (May) The fall in industrial production in May was just a partial reversal of April’s gain, meaning that the sector should provide strong support to overall GDP growth in Q2. But the manufacturing sector’s... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM pick-up to prove short-lived EM growth is likely to accelerate over the second half of this year, but a downward shift in potential growth means the recovery could hit the buffers in 2017-18. 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) May’s sharp fall in German industrial production adds to the evidence that GDPgrowth in the region’s largest economy slowed sharply in Q2. And the recoverylooks likely to ease further in the second... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit is a local, not global, shock Developments over the past few days have revived concerns about the consequences of Brexit for theglobal economy. But they have not changed our view that the economic impact outside the UK and... 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loss of AAA rating wouldn't raise borrowing costs S&P’s decision to revise Australia’s AAA credit rating from stable to negative is another political blow for the Coalition, but it doesn’t mean much for the financial markets, the States or the banks 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manu. (Jun.) Despite the widening in the nominal trade deficit to $41.1bn in May, from $37.4bn, net trade probably still provided a small boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we suspect was close to 3%... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC weakening renminbi and its own credibility Continued declines in the renminbi against both the dollar and the official trade-weighted basket make a mockery of the PBOC’s suggestion that its policy is to keep the currency’s value stable... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to act despite downgrade to GDP forecast Despite an apparent return to below-potential GDP growth and the financial market turmoil triggered by the UK's decision to leave the EU, we expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Commodity currencies could make further gains The UK’s decision to leave the EU caused a momentary wobble in emerging market (EM) currencies, but many are now stronger against the US dollar than they were one month ago. Commodity currencies have... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Will ‘Brexit’ drive a new bull market in gold? The UK’s decision to vote in favour of leaving the European Union in a nationwide referendum on 23 rd June – or ‘Brexit’ – has already boosted the prices of precious metals. The prospects for both... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Growth starting to slow June’s survey data confirmed that GDP growth in Q2 is very unlikely to have matched Q1’s 0.6% quarterly expansion, with both the EC Survey and the PMI appearing consistent with around a 0.3% rise... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC shrugs off Brexit concerns…for now The Polish MPC used this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference to suggest that it was broadly unconcerned about the impact of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on the domestic economy, but we think... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The merchandise trade deficit was broadly unchanged at C$3.3bn in May, thanks in part to an upward revision to the April figure. Despite the disruptions to oil sands production from the Alberta... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will single-family housing starts ever recover? In order for housing starts to make sustained headway, building in the single-family sector needs to rise. For that to happen, builders need to shift production towards lower priced starter homes... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) The impact from Brexit is being felt in the mortgage market. Mortgage interest rates have dropped on the back of a decline in Treasury yields, which has given refinancing activity a boost. Rates are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
