Precious Metals Update Will silver continue to outshine gold? The price of gold has predictably done well in the wake of the UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). But the real star of the show has been silver, whose price has already jumped by 20% in US... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Brexit to hit France harder than Germany On the face of it, Germany seems more exposed than France to the effects of the UK leaving the EU. But in the time before the UK actually leaves the single market, France is more vulnerable than... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Brexit vote doesn’t change the task facing the Fed While the UK Brexit vote triggered some initial volatility in financial markets, many of the adverse moves have already been unwound and overall financial conditions in the US remain considerably... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China’s move up the value chain – what it means for Korea China’s move up the value chain is proving a major challenge for Korean exporters. Poor export prospects are just one reason why we expect Korea’s economy to struggle over the next few years. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China concerns could soon replace Brexit fears With fears over the impact of the UK’s potential exit from the EU having faded, the focus of commodity markets may soon return to China’s economy and currency. The third successive monthly fall in... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russia’s construction sector? Early signs suggest that Russia’s economic recovery may have stalled in the second quarter due largely to renewed weakness in the construction sector. This seems to be the result of financial problems... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Falling oil supplies trump Brexit concerns The sharp drops in the prices of riskier assets, including oil, after the UK voted to leave the EU have dominated headlines. However, oil prices are now more or less back to their pre-Brexit levels... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (Jun.) While the UK Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the manufacturing sector re-gained some vigour in June, it probably won’t be enough to prevent the sector from slipping back into recession... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) June’s surprisingly positive PMI reading provides another sign that South Africa’s economy narrowly avoided a recession in Q2. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Manufacturing PMIs (June) May’s fall in euro-zone unemployment shows that the labour market is slowly recovering. Butemployment growth may already have peaked and there is still too much slack to generate any meaningful wage... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Which industries suffer most from the stronger yen? While the yen has weakened slightly over the past week as concerns about the impact of Brexit have faded, it is still around 20% stronger than it was at the start of the year. A stronger currency... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India's manufacturing PMI rose in June, but the reading remained lacklustre by past standards. The big picture is that local manufacturers continue to face significant structural constraints. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The delay of the sales tax hike provided a boost to household sentiment in June. However, the collapse in household inflation expectations is clearly worrying. 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) While the June PMIs for Emerging Asia were generally uninspiring, in the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, the surveys suggest that manufacturing conditions are at least... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (Jun.) The manufacturing PMIs continue to disappoint. But given the recent resilience of the service sector and signs of strength in construction, we still aren’t overly concerned about the near-term outlook... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households can cope with lower wealth Although the recent poor performance of equity prices means that household wealth may decline in the first half of the year, we doubt this will significantly restrain consumption growth. Households... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
