Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Will Egypt turn to the IMF? Rumours have circulated again that Egypt is seeking a deal with the IMF and, as we argue in this Watch, an agreement is now looking more likely than at any point in the past five years. A financing... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Palm oil prices to fall further The price of palm oil rallied strongly in early 2016 on a combination of smaller harvests, rising soybean (and soy oil) prices and a rally in crude oil prices. These factors more than offset the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Sterling’s slide boosts UK equities Perhaps surprisingly, the shares of medium- and large-sized companies fared better in the UK than in the US, the euro-zone and Japan, in the aftermath of the vote for Brexit. Much of this... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Sterling likely to fall further (which would be no bad thing) 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) CoreLogic reported a strong rise in house prices in May, in line with the recent run of solid gains. With mortgage rates now likely to stay close to record lows for longer, house prices will continue... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany won’t suffer most from Brexit vote While German exporters are particularly vulnerable to weaker demand from the UK following the Brexit vote, the economy is also well-placed to benefit from any relocation of financial services or... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How concerning is the news from open-ended funds? In the wake of the referendum result, some property funds have reacted by cutting the value of their assets, and even stopping fund outflows. However, by limiting outflows, funds can allow the dust to... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC announces action to support bank lending Coming after Governor Carney’s initial statement following the referendum to “take all necessary steps to meet its responsibilities for monetary and financial stability”, Project Reassure continued... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Terrorism poses a threat to Bangladesh’s long-term prospects The recent terror attack in Bangladesh is unlikely to have a big impact on the economy in the short-term. However, long-term prospects would take a significant dent if a more dangerous security... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM equities? British politics remains in turmoil following the vote for “Brexit”, but emerging market (EM) equities do not. There are likely to be more periodic sell-offs in risky assets in the months ahead, but... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (June) Portugal and Greece seem have made some good headway towards repairing their public finances so far this year, in contrast with Italy and Spain which are both struggling to make any improvement... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brexit impact will be ultimately positive for euro-zone prime property The commercial construction PMI fell to its lowest level since mid-2009 in June. This highlights the extent to which the uncertainty around the EU referendum was weighing on developers’ activity. The... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s data flaws extend beyond GDP Our new measure of activity in China’s industrial sector, based on data on the output of hundreds of products, points to much slower growth than the closely-watched monthly industrial production data... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jun.) The commercial construction PMI fell to its lowest level since mid-2009 in June. This highlights the extent to which the uncertainty around the EU referendum was weighing on developers’ activity. The... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
