Industrial Metals Update Aluminium demand is stronger than often thought We are now even more positive on aluminium demand in the near-term, based partly on our new Capital Economics Demand Proxy, but believe that supply growth will put a lid on prices by end-year. 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q1) Data released over the weekend, showing that Saudi GDP growth slowed in Q1 (particularly in the non-oil private sector), highlights the impact that fiscal austerity is already having on the economy... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Jun.) The much sharper-than-expected rise in Turkish inflation last month, to 7.6% y/y, confirms our view that the recent falls in the headline rate were unsustainable. The central bank might still use last... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the election mean for the economy and markets? The fallout on the economy and financial markets from the uncertain outcome of the Federal election will probably be relatively mild and short-lived and is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Prices rally into July The prices of both industrial and precious metals have jumped in the last month, despite falling initially in the wake of the UK’s vote to leave the EU on 23rd June. Prices subsequently recovered on... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Brexit vote has a silver lining The price of gold has predictably done well in the wake of the UK’s surprise vote to leave the EU (‘Brexit’). But the real star of the show has been silver, whose price has already jumped by nearly 20... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Commodities brush off Brexit blues Commodities outperformed equities in June as the UK’s surprise vote to leave the European Union sapped risk appetite in global markets. Gold prices predictably benefited from the heightened... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI weakens in June, but some good news The fall in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI in June suggests that growth probably weakened at the end of Q2. But there was some rare positive news from a handful of EM economies that have been... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Business surveys published today suggest that global manufacturing growth ticked up in June. Note, however, that almost all the survey responses were received before the UK’s vote to leave the EU. The... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The decline in Mexico’s manufacturing PMI to almost a three-year low in June confirms that the sector is struggling for momentum, but with other more reliable leading indicators – such as the US ISM... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How far will inflation rise? Although the slide in the trade-weighted sterling index of a little below 10% since the referendum result will give exporters a much-needed boost to their competitiveness, it will also lift the prices... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: One week on It has now been a week since the result of the UK’s referendum on its membership of the EU was announced and the market reaction has been significant, although perhaps less severe than some had... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What scope do European cities have to profit from any Brexit job shifts? The UK’s vote to leave the EU has increased the risk of financial sector jobs moving from London to cities such as Dublin, Frankfurt or Paris. Given existing vacancy levels and near-term pipelines... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update How dark are the clouds over London’s skyline? The outlook for London’s office market is undeniably weaker than it was just 10 days ago. But although we have cut our forecasts in response to last week’s vote, we think there are reasons to believe... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Ind. Prod. (May) & Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) The stagnation in Brazilian industrial production in May was disappointing, coming on the back of growth in the two previous months, but the bigger picture is that the underlying trend is improving... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
