Europe Economics Focus Will further political uncertainty in Spain derail the recovery? If Spain’s upcoming election returns an anti-austerity coalition to power then there would probably be an immediate rise in government bond yields. But whatever the result, much-needed reforms are... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary hints at further unconventional easing Hungary’s MPC made it clear today that further interest rate cuts are unlikely. And while the Council hinted at more “unconventional” policy loosening, we doubt that this would have a significant... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy stagnates as austerity takes its toll Our GDP Tracker suggests that tighter fiscal policy is taking a heavier toll on the economy than even we had anticipated. We will revisit our forecasts soon, but the short point is that expectations... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What is going to move markets before the Referendum result? It is generally accepted that a vote to leave the EU in this week’s Referendum would have an adverse impact on financial markets, in particular, a drop in the pound. But any movements will crucially... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would a Brexit trigger the ECB’s OMTs? Today’s ruling by the German constitutional court leaves the ECB free to implement its long-awaited OMT programme, if deemed necessary. And a possible trigger for OMTs – Brexit – might be just a few... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jun.) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for June showed an improvement in manufacturing activity despite the sector facing subdued external demand and the domestic uncertainty caused by the EU referendum. 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How significant is the slide in inflation expectations? Many measures of inflation expectations are at, or close to, record lows. We do not think this means that the world as a whole is heading for a long period of very low inflation, or even deflation... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW (Jun.) June’s ZEW survey suggests that investor sentiment towards the German economy has not been hit by the risk of Brexit so far and points to steady annual GDP growth. 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (May) Capital flows out of China have stabilised in recent months and policymakers have responded by once again easing restrictions on cross-border flows. But outflows are likely to pick up again if the... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s metals imports treading water China’s metals import demand in May remained robust but down from the highs reached in March. In some cases, lower supply and higher prices are acting as constraints on import volumes. 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) Adding to the Chancellor’s concerns about the outcome of the EU referendum on Thursday, the public finances don’t appear to be on track to meet the OBR’s forecasts from the March Budget. 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets calm as Governor Rajan heads for the exit Th e market fallout from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan’s announcement that he will step down at the end of his current contract in September has so far been limited to a slight drop in the rupee and a... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Will leisure’s poor rental run be sustained? Leisure rental value growth has slowed dramatically since December. However, over the medium term, muted sentiment and leisure spending are both more likely to improve than deteriorate. As a result... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are investors right to be targeting Manchester? Media reports suggest that Chinese investors are increasingly targeting Manchester residential property. With capital appreciation set to slow markedly over the coming years, that makes sense, as... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Bank lending rates have fallen sharply since policymakers introduced negative interest rates in January. One consequence is that bank profits have started to moderate from high levels. 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Fading Brexit fears to return the focus to the Fed, and China 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
