Japan Economics Weekly Will banks’ falling profits undermine lending? Commercial bank profits have started to moderate following the launch of negative interest rates as banks have cut lending rates. However, we are not convinced that further cuts in lending rates will... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia need not fear a Brexit The sharp falls in equity prices in Australia in response to the rise in the chance that the UK may vote to leave the EU seem overdone. A Brexit is unlikely to be a disaster for the global economy... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update BoP data show further strengthening in external position The narrowing in India’s current account deficit in Q1, along with another rise in foreign direct investment inflows, leaves the economy looking well placed to weather any sudden shifts in global risk... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Will Finland’s competitiveness pact boost the recovery? Finland’s competitiveness pact probably won’t boost employment by as much as the Government hopes. But it is still a positive move that should help to lower labour costs and boost output. 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Industrial and precious metals prices diverge The commodity price indices have risen in the last month, encouraged by rising oil prices and by a scaling back of expectations for US interest rate rises which in turn has weakened the dollar. But... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Vote for Brexit may prove to be a damp squib There are good reasons to believe that the market fireworks after a UK vote to leave the EU (‘ Brexit ’) would not be as dramatic as many expect. Indeed, while the initial impact on the pound would... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: rates hiked as inflation jumps, currency pressures mount Today’s 100bp rate hike in Egyptian interest rates was larger than even our own above-consensus forecast and, with inflation likely to rise further in the coming months and the central bank willing to... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus What to expect after the referendum result We have written plenty about the economic effects of both a “remain” and “leave” vote, but in reality it is not that clear-cut. In either scenario, whether the vote is won by a small or large margin... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will Greek debt ever be sustainable? The immediate risks surrounding Greece have receded once again, with the likely completion of its first review today set to trigger payment of its next loan tranche early next week. But our analysis... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit uncertainty bites as referendum looms The increase in the probability of a Brexit following June’s referendum, as polls have shifted towards “Leave”, has rattled markets recently. Trade-weighted sterling has resumed its slide, while... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) Headline CPI inflation remained well below the Fed’s target in May, but base effects will push it well above 2% by early next year. Both headline and core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why can’t home sellers extract higher prices? Given low inventory levels, experience suggests that house prices should be rising at double their current rate of around 5% y/y. But with low numbers of existing homes for sale, the behaviour of... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Referendum effects muddy picture for MPC The MPC today repeated its warnings about the potential adverse effects on the economy of a Brexit , but reiterated that the policy implications of a Brexit would not be clear-cut. Meanwhile, if the... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (May.) May’s official retail sales figures suggest that EU referendum uncertainty hasn’t held back spending on the high street and that consumers will prevent GDP growth from slowing too much in Q2. 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Economic giants now contracting Both the Nigerian and South African economies contracted in Q1, and the latest activity figures suggest that things remained very grim going into Q2. In Nigeria, disruptions to oil output in Q2 have... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
