Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE markets focus on Brexit risks The focus of investors in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is now squarely on the UK’s Brexit vote tomorrow. CEE has the largest linkages with the UK of any EM region, and so is more exposed to... 22nd June 2016 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: All eyes on final flurry of opinion polls Betting and financial markets continue to consider a vote to remain in the EU by far the more likely outcome in tomorrow’s referendum as we await the remaining few opinion polls. 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth starting to turn a corner EM growth has shown some signs of life in recent months. GDP data for Q1 showed a rise in aggregate growth for the first time since 2013 and our GDP Tracker suggests that the improvement continued in... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Amsterdam office rents set to shrug off high vacancy rate Decent economic growth in the Netherlands in the next few years will support office occupier demand. Coupled with low availability for modern space this means that, rather than acting as a brake on... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May) The weaker-than-expected South African inflation reading for May, of 6.1% y/y, will provide welcome relief for the Reserve Bank. Barring a surprising rise in June’s inflation figure, we think the MPC... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fallout from Brexit vote would be limited A vote by the UK to leave the European Union in tomorrow's referendum would be unlikely to have much impact on India's economy. Indian exports to the UK are equivalent to less than 0.5% of GDP, so... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Underlying inflation to remain low While GDP growth was stronger than expected in Australia and New Zealand in the first quarter, this doesn’t alter our view that underlying inflation will remain low for a while yet. The Australian... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Should the BoJ become more flexible? Doing away with a specific timeframe for reaching 2% inflation would sow doubts about policymakers’ commitment to the 2%-target and would be a major step backwards. Instead, more stimulus is needed to... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Would Brexit break Denmark’s currency peg? The Danish krone would probably face significant upward pressure in the event of a Brexit. But as the Danmarks Nationalbank has scope to loosen policy further, a Brexit is unlikely to break its euro... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Brexit would push Swiss franc higher despite SNB’s efforts While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has vowed to limit any impact on the franc if the UK votes to leave the EU tomorrow, we doubt that it has enough ammunition to prevent an appreciation. We think... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2016) Consumer spending in the emerging world finally looks to have turned a corner, thanks mainly to the bottoming-out of consumer recessions in Russia and Brazil. Spending in Central and Eastern Europe... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Would a “Brexit” lead to a rout in emerging market currencies? 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (May) World Steel Association (WSA) data, released this afternoon, show that global steel output fell by a negligible 0.1%y/y in May. However, after a weak start to the year, production still fell by 2.2% y... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Polls and bookmakers still at odds Betting markets – which have a good track record of forecasting votes – still appear to consider a vote to remain far more likely than a leave vote, even though opinion polls point to a neck-and-neck... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
