China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Industrial activity remained stable last month but a further slowdown in private sector investment raises concerns about the medium term outlook. 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling underlying inflation to require more easing The government’s decision to postpone the sales tax hike to 2019 has improved the economic outlook. However, we still believe that the Bank will respond to the recent moderation in underlying... 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly “Brexit” risks coming into focus Commodity prices have generally risen in the past week, helped by further dollar weakness. However, sentiment already appears to be turning more cautious on renewed concerns over the health of the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slump in payroll growth closely resembles the 2012 dip There are one or two genuine reasons to worry about the strength of the labour market. But the deeper we dig, the more we’re convinced the spring slowdown in payroll employment growth is a temporary... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure was broadly unchanged at an elevated 94.3 in June, which suggests the pick-up in second-quarter consumption growth will continue into the... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Leave camp momentum boosts rate cut chances Brexit concerns have intensified over the past week, with polls very close, and this was clearly reflected in falling interest rate expectations (and consequently sterling). But despite 10-year gilt... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are resurfacing global growth fears causing bond market rally? 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Energy production other shoe to drop Despite the rebound in oil prices this year, domestic energy producers don’t appear to believe in a sustainable recovery judging by the further decline in oil & gas drilling rig activity. Falling... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) While the employment gain of 13,800 in May and drop in the unemployment rate to 6.9%, from 7.1%, was better than most had expected, this was entirely due to hiring in the public sector, partly related... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Apr.) The 1.9% y/y rebound in Mexican industrial production confirms that last month’s sharp drop was largely due to working day effects. But the underlying picture is that the sector remains the weak spot... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs well placed to weather a Brexit vote A vote by the UK to leave the EU would likely cause ripples rather than shockwaves in the emerging world. Trade ties with the UK are too small to have a material impact on EM exporters. And while a... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rental growth to cool in Italy Retail rents in Milan and Rome rose sharply last year. But a slowdown in the Italian economy and consumer spending growth over the coming years will mean that rental growth now eases back. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) Today’s industrial production data suggest, in stark contrast to the upbeat message from the rocketing GDP figures, that Indian industry is still in the doldrums. 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC resumes easing cycle The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50bp to 10.50% today was a close one but, having decided to start easing policy once again we think that interest rates... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Should Asia worry about Brexit? The referendum on Britain leaving the EU has dominated international headlines over the last week, with some commentators warning that a “Brexit” would have significant implications well beyond Europe... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro 2016 unlikely to kick off French recovery There are hopes that Euro 2016 will provide a boost to the French economy and perhaps lift national sentiment. But any gains in football-related expenditure will be at least partly offset by falls... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
