Slump in payroll growth closely resembles the 2012 dip

There are one or two genuine reasons to worry about the strength of the labour market. But the deeper we dig, the more we’re convinced the spring slowdown in payroll employment growth is a temporary hangover after the record warm fall and winter. The last time we saw a slowdown like this was in spring 2012 and, not coincidently, fall/winter 2011/2012 was the third warmest on record. The slowdowns this spring and in 2012 were also both concentrated in the most weather-sensitive employment sectors too, namely construction, retail and leisure.