Energy Update Nigerian oil output disruptions are another wildcard for prices It is likely that further disruptions to Nigerian oil output over the next few weeks and months will continue to support oil prices, even as production from Canada returns. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response South Africa’s Mine Production (Apr.) South Africa’s overall mine production remained subdued in April, but PGM output did recover somewhat. We maintain that renewed efforts to curb output should underpin price gains later in the year. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Key sectors improve at start of Q2 South Africa’s April output figures suggest that, after a disastrous Q1, the economy improved a touch going into Q2. But the country will still struggle to avoid a technical recession. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the EU’s sanctions on Russia The EU’s sanctions on Russia are due to expire in July and, while it is most likely that they will be renewed, it is possible that this comes alongside a broad timetable for scaling them back subject... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Remain vote would bring rate hike back onto agenda With even overseas central banks citing the EU referendum as a reason not to raise rates this month, the chances of anything from the Bank of England are nil. If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we don... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why has stronger credit not lifted growth? Credit growth has been accelerating since the middle of last year and yet growth has remained sluggish, raising questions over the effectiveness of recent policy stimulus. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) Despite the narrowing in the UK’s trade deficit in April, net trade still doesn’t appear to be providing any support to the economy. But the prospects for trade look brighter further ahead. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (May.) This morning’s RICS data report that April’s slump in new buyers and sellers deepened in May. This is consistent with our view that house price growth will slow markedly over the course of 2016. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (May) Egyptian inflation jumped to 12.3% y/y in May as the impact of March’s devaluation of the pound continued to feed through into price pressures, while a decision by the government to hike medicine... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What to make of Korea’s rate cut and restructuring plans The Bank of Korea (BoK) unexpectedly lowered its policy rate to a new record low of 1.25% today, marking its first cut since last June. The decision came a day after plans were unveiled for the... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May) Consumer price inflation edged down last month but remains at a healthy level. Meanwhile, producer prices continue to recover faster than anticipated on the back of rebounding commodity prices, easing... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Apr.) The sharp fall in machinery orders in April bodes ill for capital spending in the second quarter, though we wouldn’t read too much into the data for a single month. 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Housing heat changes RBNZ’s rate-cutting timetable Despite leaving interest rates at 2.25% today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still hinted that they may fall to 2.0% before long. What’s more, we still think there’s a chance that rates may have to... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories fell for the third week in a row last week thanks to lower net imports and stronger refinery demand. Notably, overall production rose on the week. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won’t move until labour market uncertainty clears The sudden stop in employment growth rules out any chance of a rate hike from the Fed at next week’s FOMC meeting, particularly now that the UK vote on whether to leave the European Union (EU) appears... 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How might the MPC loosen policy after a Brexit? It is by no means guaranteed that the MPC would loosen policy after a Brexit vote. But if it did want to give the economy some extra stimulus, an interest rate cut would not be its only option. 8th June 2016 · 1 min read
