Canada Economics Weekly Consumption growth likely to slow The recent pick-up in consumer spending growth suggests at first glance that households are in a position to carry the economy once again this year. But closer examination of the underlying trends in... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s presidential election: three key risks The second (and final) round of Peru’s presidential election, set to take place on Sunday, won’t bring a major shift away from the current government’s fairly market-friendly economic policies... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Apr.) The merchandise trade deficit narrowed by a smaller margin than expected in April, mostly due to a tepid rebound in export volumes. Given the potential for a decline in energy exports in May, it now... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack All eyes on the Fed and the UK referendum The weak US non-farm payrolls data for May and uncertainty ahead of the UK referendum on EU membership, scheduled for 23rd June, may push back the next Fed rate hike until July at the earliest, if not... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in inventory-to-sales ratio not a recession signal The rising business inventory-to-sales ratio is not a signal of an imminent recession. The increase in the ratio of some specific components – machinery – is a potential problem. But much of the rise... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: What to look for when CBN clarifies naira policy The long delay in explaining its new FX policy is another blow to the credibility of the Central Bank of Nigeria. In this note, we examine three key questions raised by the current FX policy... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Strong dollar weighs on precious metals prices Precious metals prices fell across the board in May. A strong dollar on the back of upward revisions to US interest rate expectations was the main factor behind the poor performance of the sector... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Referendum uncertainty putting the brakes on growth Recent data have confirmed that the recovery slowed at the start of 2016 and that growth remained precariously unbalanced. Meanwhile, the Markit/CIPS surveys have brought further evidence that... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The 38,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in May, which is still only 73,000 if we adjust for the 35,000 striking Verizon workers, means that a June rate hike from the Fed is now very unlikely.... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: PMIs show uncertainty biting Data released this week confirmed that Brexit uncertainty is negatively affecting businesses – but consumers continue to look considerably less concerned. Although markets have responded to the recent... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Investors turn more cautious The prices of almost all the industrial metals fell in May. A combination of an upward revision to US interest rate expectations, a stronger US dollar and renewed concerns about China’s demand weighed... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly QE expansion uneven across the euro-zone The expansion of the ECB’s QE programme may have contributed to the recent increase in euro-zone equity prices and economic sentiment. But purchases of government bonds have increased by more in the... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Housing market to cool regardless of Brexit vote While concerns about the overvaluation of UK housing are nothing new, recent signs that the market is cooling has led some to proclaim that we are on the cusp of a house price crash. Although we don’t... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Will Vietnam’s exports continue to boom? Exports from Vietnam should continue to grow strongly in the short-term, helped by booming foreign direct investment into the manufacturing sector. However, the lack of spillovers from the dynamic... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (May) The improvement in the UK Markit/CIPS services survey in May provides reassurance that the economic recovery has not ground to a halt in Q2. But this is still consistent with an easing in GDP growth... 3rd June 2016 · 1 min read
