Latin America Data Response Brazil GDP (Q1) The drop in Brazil Q1 GDP was much smaller than had been expected but only because of a jump in government spending. With fiscal policy set to tighten over the second half of the year, this prop to... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How would the ECB respond to a Brexit? A Brexit and its after-effects could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to undertake further unconventional policy action, including measures to support the euro-zone’s financial sector, FX... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) Net lending to the property sector fell in April. However, April’s losses barely made a dent in the previous two months’ gains, and with traditional lenders’ exposure to property stabilising, we... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) As expected, April’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the mortgage market is cooling. By contrast, unsecured lending growth remains high and could prompt additional action... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but tightening cycle not yet over Iceland’s central bank kept its interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting. But with price pressures set to pick up in the second half of the year, further tightening will be needed. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (May) & Money and Credit (Apr.) The small improvement in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in May did little to change the fundamental picture of a struggling industrial sector. But we remain optimistic that the sector’s... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Delay in sales tax hike brightens outlook for 2017 The delay that has just been confirmed in the sales tax hike will result in economic activity being stronger than would have been the case next year. The decision diminishes pressure on the Bank of... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Latest news from China unsettles commodities Another set of lacklustre China PMI surveys and recent falls in the renminbi against the dollar are weighing on the prices of many commodities again today. China’s economic recovery should still pick... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide HPI & Mortgage Lending (May/Apr) April’s drop in mortgage approvals was an expected response to the recent changes in stamp duty for additional homes and it gives us little new information. But the further easing in the Nationwide... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Turkey: defying gravity…for now After a period of relative calm, growing political tensions have once again led to a deterioration in sentiment towards Turkey. As it happens, we think the country’s growth prospects over the next 6-9... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) Manufacturing PMIs strengthened in most countries across Emerging Europe in May. The rise in the PMIs in Central Europe (Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic) provides further evidence that the... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (May) India's manufacturing PMI edged up in May, but the reading remained lacklustre. The big picture is that local manufacturers continue to face significant structural constraints. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (May) The May PMIs for Emerging Asia continue to point to lacklustre conditions in Asia’s manufacturing sectors. In the two economies where the PMIs most closely track the hard data, Korea’s manufacturing... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response PMIs (May) The PMI readings for May were underwhelming. Although they suggest that activity held up reasonably well last month, they also offer few signs of improvement. 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The surge in GDP in the first quarter means the RBA won’t be in a rush to cut interest rates again. But growth will slow during the rest of this year and we still think that continued low inflation... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q1) Today’s capital spending figures suggest that business investment was stronger last quarter than initially reported. The upshot is that next week’s revised Q1 GDP figures could show a 0.5% q/q... 1st June 2016 · 1 min read
