Energy Update What are the prospects for Latin American oil? Declining output of crude in Latin America is one factor supporting our view that the global oil market will return to balance on a more sustainable basis by the end of 2016. That said, we think it is... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four reasons for (cautious) optimism on the world economy In their declaration earlier today, G7 leaders claimed that “global growth is our urgent priority”. Promoting growth is a worthwhile aim but the implication that the world economy is on the brink of a... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Positive signs from Germany but more stimulus needed The German economy got off to a strong start to the year. The healthy 0.7% expansion of GDP in Q1 was driven primarily by a pick-up in investment but also increases in public and private consumption... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets still under-estimating pace of future rate hikes Markets are coming around to the idea that the Fed will raise rates for a second time either next month or in July, but still appear to be unusually sanguine about the prospects of additional rate... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth edges up for second consecutive month Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth picked up for the second consecutive month in March, suggesting that fears of an imminent collapse continue to be misplaced. The latest rise was broad-based but... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) At the all-property level, our forecasts are slightly more positive than the Consensus. However, since we expect any tightening of monetary conditions to be gradual and economic growth hold up fairly... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Recession warnings haven’t spooked investors This week the Treasury warned that a vote to leave the EU would result in a recession, while GDPdata added to the evidence that Brexit uncertainty contributed to Q1’s slowdown. But there weremore... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver price to benefit from increasing focus on solar Strong growth in the number of solar installations in China and the US should see silver demand from the sector increase by over 20% y/y in 2016. While solar power currently accounts for just a small... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Even a small Brexit hit could leave fiscal rules broken Relatively small overshoots in public sector borrowing, like that shown in last week’s figures, could soon pale into insignificance if the UK were to vote to leave the EU next month. Indeed, the... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Analysing President Buhari’s first year The fall in global oil prices made an economic slowdown in Nigeria inevitable. But the country’s current crisis is largely self-inflicted. Government policy has made a bad situation much worse. 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Usual suspects repeating the same old mistakes By keeping monetary policy too loose for too long, Pakistan, Vietnam and Sri Lanka now face either a surge in inflation or a rise in bad debts. What’s more, central banks remain complacent about the... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (May) Consumer sentiment seems to be holding up pretty well despite the looming EU referendum. Nonetheless, consumer spending growth in 2016 will probably still be a bit slower than in 2015 as austerity... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update How much have shortages held back housebuilding? Materials and labour constraints may have reduced housing starts in England by as much as 5.5% per year since 2013 – equivalent to a cumulative total of around 24,000 homes. But with production... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How will the sales tax decision affect the outlook? A decision on whether to go ahead with the sales tax hike scheduled for next April will be announced in coming weeks. If the tax rise is postponed, GDP growth next year would be considerably stronger... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) According to our estimates, the Bank of Japan’s preferred inflation gauge slowed in April. Lingering slack and falling import prices suggest that price pressures will continue to moderate. 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stuck in transition It always seemed unlikely to us that non-mining investment would seamlessly fill the hole left by the plunge in mining investment. This is especially the case when the economy is saddled with a large... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
