US Chart Pack June rate hike far from a done deal The minutes of the April FOMC meeting and subsequent comments by various Fed officials have prompted speculation that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as next month. Treasury yields have... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup’s Greek debt pledges fall a long way short The likely disbursement of the next tranche of Greece’s third bailout may have reduced the risk of a summer flare-up of the country’s debt crisis. But with the creditors’ pledges on debt relief... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (May) May’s rise in the German Ifo suggests that the economy has continued to grow at pretty healthy rates, but the fast quarterly pace seen in Q1 will not be sustained. 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The implications of a vote to stay in the EU If the UK votes to stay in the EU, we expect a kneejerk strengthening in financial markets, although any rise in the pound might be short-lived. The economic recovery would quickly get back on track... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Claims that the launch of negative interest rates has caused a flight to cash are exaggerated. However, there are clear signs that negative rates have lowered borrowing costs for Japan’s private... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Saudi Arabia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Saudi Arabia edged down last month, but it still remained elevated due to the energy and water tariff hikes earlier in the year, as well as the recent hike in tobacco import duties. These... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack PM Modi's first two years end on a high note Two years on from his inauguration, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has arguably just enjoyed his most successful month in office. For a start, PM Modi's BJP secured two important legislative victories... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q1 Revised) Today’s revised estimate of Singapore’s first quarter GDP confirmed that the economy made a lacklustre start to the year, and the outlook isn’t much better . We doubt that export conditions will... 25th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil fiscal package: lofty rhetoric, but implementation a risk Brazil’s Finance Minister, Henrique Meirelles, has unveiled the first part of his planned fiscal adjustment. Our initial take is that the plans are lofty in ambition, but so far lacking in detail... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Valuations could protect EM equities from the Fed While investors are still probably underestimating the future pace of monetary tightening in the US, we suspect that relatively low valuations will help to ensure that emerging market (EM) equities... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN finally admits need for flexibility The Central Bank of Nigeria finally admitted at its MPC meeting today that its inflexible “strong naira” policy has failed. The move towards a more flexible exchange rate system is a positive step. We... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The 16.6% m/m gain in new homes sales in April was the biggest monthly rise since the start of 1992. A lack of existing homes for sale is driving the growing number of home buyers to look at the new... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Brexit not a major threat to world trade The latest data confirm that world trade remained depressed in March, in part reflecting the weakness of global manufacturing. With little prospect of significant trade liberalisation in the coming... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly Consumer Prices (May) The fact that Mexican inflation in the first half of this month came in at a weaker-than-expected 2.5% y/y eases some of the pressure on the MPC to tighten monetary policy next month. But if the peso... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have Dublin office yields fallen too far? The decline in prime Dublin office yields towards pre-crisis levels raises the question of whether they have again fallen too far? But with a positive rental growth outlook and risk-free rates at... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
