Capital Daily Will markets take the resumption of US rate hikes in their stride? 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: A pause in the tightening cycle Today’s decision to hold rates at 7.00% is only a pause in the SARB’s tightening cycle; we still expect at least two rate hikes later this year. The MPC statement supported our very downbeat view of... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What if the Fed does hike again in June? Our central forecast is that US interest rates will be raised twice this year, probably in September and December, but we suspect that the chances of a hike on 15th June are rather higher than the 30%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers shrug off Brexit uncertainty The consumer recovery appears to have got back on track, at least as far as the official retail sales figures indicate. Indeed, consumer confidence still seems to be holding up well despite the... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier market governments push for reform Low commodity prices, slower growth and a string of elections have prompted a move towards reform in a handful of frontier market economies in recent months. But while these governments have made... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch What to expect from next month’s OPEC meeting The next meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on 2nd June, is unlikely to be as interesting as the previous one in December, when the group decided to effectively... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Key takeaways from London Platinum Week With the London Platinum Week coming to an end, we are taking stock of the highlights from the past week of meetings with the major representatives of the PGM industry. The general sentiment across... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Polish Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Apr.) The strength of Polish activity data for April, released today, confirms our suspicion that the weakness seen in Q1 was likely to prove temporary. Indeed, it looks like the economy expanded by around... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia opens door to further easing Malaysia and Indonesia both left their main policy rates on hold at scheduled meetings today. But while Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) gave little sign that it was about to shift monetary policy... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: policy tightening underway, but work still to do Argentina’s long-overdue policy tightening – needed to address the country’s entrenched inflation problem – is finally underway, but with the fiscal deficit still large and inflation in excess of 40%... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Shifting into lower gear The slowdown in capital value growth and total returns that we anticipated in our previous Analyst, appears to be on track. As a result we have made only cosmetic changes to our forecasts. Yet... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) April’s official UK retail sales figures painted a more upbeat picture than the recent survey and anecdotal evidence and suggested that high street spending has now come through its recent soft patch... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State election results brighten reform outlook Regional parties have dominated the state elections held over the past month, but there has also been an apparent strengthening of support for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP at the local level. On... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Philippines GDP (Q1) Today’s Q1 GDP data for the Philippines showed that Rodrigo Duterte, the country’s president elect, will be handed an economy that is in very good health. The foundations are in place for growth to... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Apr.) Since the labour market remained healthy enough in April, the Reserve Bank of Australia doesn’t need to hit the panic button and cut interest rates again at the next meeting in June. We still think... 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) On its own, the rebound in machinery orders in March bodes well for capital spending in the second quarter. However, the weakness in capital goods shipments is disconcerting. 19th May 2016 · 1 min read
