Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A further increase in demand for oil from refineries and Canadian supply constraints were insufficient to reduce the level of crude inventories last week. 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What can homebuilder share prices tell us about housing starts? Homebuilder share prices have flat lined since early 2015, which could be a sign that the recent soft patch in housing starts is set to continue. But the past relationship between the two is far from... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will “other forces” keep US Treasury yields down? US Treasury yields continue to be depressed by other forces besides the expectation that the federal funds rate will remain very low in the future. Some of these forces are likely to persist over the... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G7 finance ministers This weekend’s G7 finance ministers meeting in Sendai, Japan, is likely to focus on exchange rate and fiscal policy and to end with another warning about the dangers of Brexit. However, no major... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Any post-referendum sterling rally to be short-lived Brexit worries have been driving sterling lower so far this year. Accordingly, a vote to “remain” in June’s EU referendum should see the pound rebound. But we think any strength is unlikely to be... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch An interest rate cut still on the cards later this year We expect the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates at 0.50% next week and maintain a neutral outlook for future policy changes. Despite stronger economic growth at the start of the year and the... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will US Treasury yields stay low again, despite Fed tightening? 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q1) The rebound in Chilean GDP growth in Q1 suggests that recent concerns that the economy is heading for a renewed downturn this year were premature. Nonetheless, we doubt growth will accelerate much... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack April data not all gloomy China’s April data have been met with downbeat headlines. This is not surprising given that growth in almost all the key economic indicators slowed last month. But the comparison between April and... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak economy will prompt SARB pause Lower-than-expected inflation and retail sales will probably lead the SARB to leave rates on hold at its meeting tomorrow. Output data suggest that South Africa narrowly avoided a fall in GDP in Q1. 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Is the rally in US steel prices sustainable? The price of steel in the US market has surged recently but it could be yet another commodity where premature price rises encourage additional supply. We caution that prices may fall from here as... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response UK Commercial Property Data Response The pace of job creation improved in March, but was nevertheless low by recent standards. That said, in big picture terms, with vacancies still high and job creation driven by full-time positions... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will Dutch consumers keep on spending? Despite the recent falls in consumer confidence, there are a number of reasons to be positive about the outlook for household spending in the Netherlands over the coming years. Nevertheless, worries... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr.) Although there were some bright spots in today’s labour market figures , on the whole they offered a further indication that the economic slowdown has sapped the jobs recovery of its recent vigour. 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Rising unemployment likely to delay rate hikes The Central Bank of Chile’s decision to leave its key policy interest rate unchanged at 3.50% reinforces our view that lingering signs of economic weakness, notably the rising unemployment rate, will... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Japan’s economy performed better than expected in Q1, reducing the odds that the government will postpone the sales tax hike currently scheduled for next April. But the Bank of Japan clearly has more... 18th May 2016 · 1 min read
