Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s Meirelles unveils first steps in economic programme Brazil’s new Finance Minister has unveiled a string of eye-catching market-friendly measures this morning, as part of the first plank of his new economic programme. 17th May 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will its overvaluation prevent the US dollar from rising? The real trade-weighted value of the US dollar remains well above its average and trend levels of the last ten years. This suggests that the currency may still be fundamentally overvalued after its... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Three reasons to be wary of the latest surge in oil prices The continued recovery in the price of crude oil has lifted Brent close to $50 per barrel, prompting a wave of positive headlines and upward revisions to analysts’ forecasts. However, for now we are... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Mar.) Peruvian economic activity growth slowed in March but, taken together with February’s stronger outturn, the data still point to GDP growth remaining robust at around 4.5% y/y in the first quarter of... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil disruptions add to economic woes The sharp fall in Nigeria’s oil production could, if sustained, shave more than 1%-pt off GDP growth this year. Lower oil output will also add to the country’s fiscal and current account problems. 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has London’s housing market reached a precipice? April’s RICS data showed that London’s new buyer enquiries balance fell to its second lowest level on record. History, however, suggests that on its own, the slump in buyer demand is more likely to... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: shift to interest rate corridor not a game changer The Philippines central bank’s (BSP’s) shift towards an interest rate corridor system does not amount to a change in its monetary policy stance. With inflation set to stay low, we think monetary... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2016) The shallower-than-expected 1.2% y/y fall in Russia’s GDP in the first quarter confirms that the acute phase of the crisis is now over. And the annual growth rate could return to the positive... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Mounting risks bode ill for Italy Like much of the rest of the euro-zone, Italy’s economy got off to a decent start to the year. However,the outlook for growth remains weak and the risks to the recovery are mounting. Eventually... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US Treasuries? While we continue to expect the FOMC to hike the federal funds rate by 25bp at least twice this year, two such increases are currently anticipated by investors in the bond market . We are therefore... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Falling property yields draw closer to fair value Property yields ticked down marginally in Q1, but are now 80bps below their 10-year average. Changes in alternative asset pricing – with bond yields falling and dividend yields rising – mean that... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian reforms to remain difficult, despite Kudrin’s return The appointment of well-respected former Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin, as the Deputy Head of the President’s Economic Council has revived hopes that Russia could be set for a new wave of... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Apr.) Indian wholesale price inflation rose sharply in April and returned to positive territory for the first time in 18 months. This reinforces our view that there is little scope for further monetary... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q1) Thailand’s economy got off to a solid start to 2016, but high household debt and continued political uncertainty are likely to drag down growth again over the coming quarters. 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Apr.) Investment and retail sales softened last month but industrial output still looks healthy relative to Q1 and the property sector remains buoyant. With credit growth still accelerating we think the... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
