China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Apr.) Many have rushed to interpret today’s below-consensus lending and credit data as signalling that a shift in policymakers’ focus back to controlling credit risks is already having an impact. While that... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the BoJ really running out of assets to buy? We don’t share concerns that the Bank of Japan will soon run into trouble acquiring the ¥80 trillion worth of Japanese Government Bonds it has pledged to buy every year. Admittedly, insurance... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru holds rates but hikes still on the horizon The Central Reserve Bank of Peru kept interest rates on hold at 4.25% for a third consecutive month, but we suspect that further rate hikes are still on the way in the second half of the year. Indeed... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & South Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2016) The slowdown in GDP growth in Central and South Eastern Europe in Q1 supports our view that the very rapid rates of expansion seen at the end of last year weren’t likely to last. At a country level... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q1) Malaysia’s economy slowed further in the first quarter of 2016, and with commodity prices still depressed by past standards and household debt high, we expect growth to be stuck in the 4.0-4.5% range... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea likely to loosen monetary policy soon The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50%, but with growth still sluggish and government pressure for monetary policy easing rising, we think it is only a... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Evolution of inflation expectations in Australia is now key The decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates to 1.75% and revise down its inflation forecasts is still causing waves, but what happens next largely depends on the evolution of... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch WASDE more bearish than bullish for agriculturals In this new monthly publication, we intend to focus on key developments in agricultural commodities as well as draw on the more in-depth analysis from our Energy and Metals services. This month, we... 13th May 2016 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will Latin America continue to outperform? Financial markets in Latin America have comfortably outperformed the rest of the emerging world in the past month. But with rising commodity prices unlikely to offer much more support, we doubt that... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Brexit fears still weighing on sterling despite rally Having fallen since mid-November, trade-weighted sterling has recovered a little over the past month. But with the pound still far below its previous peak, and demand for protection against further... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: FX comments, fuel price hikes offer hints of reform The vice president’s comments regarding a possible change to Nigeria’s currency regime suggest that policy elites may not be as opposed to a devaluation as many believe. Claims that Nigeria’s fuel... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Q1 2016 World Gold Council Demand Trend In its Q1 Global Demand Trends report, published today, the World Gold Council (WGC) described a strong quarter for gold demand. A sharp recovery in investor sentiment more than offset a fall in... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How keen are households to buy homes? The share of US households who think that now is a good time to buy a home is close to previous highs, but the share of households who plan to buy in the near future is more subdued. The contrast... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Mar.) The larger-than-expected 2.0% y/y drop in Mexican industrial production growth in March was particularly disappointing given that it followed a strong 2.6% y/y rise in February. Today’s data mean that... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Reduced scope to catch up will limit EM and global growth The rapid expansion of emerging economies (EMs) over the past decade or two has reduced the scope for further “catch-up” growth. Along with this, many EMs are likely to continue falling short of their... 12th May 2016 · 1 min read
