Europe Economics Focus Is Europe heading back into crisis? With the recovery in the euro-zone economy set to slow and the peripheral countries still facing a Herculean task to address their fiscal problems, there is a danger that Europe’s debt crisis will... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary ends easing cycle, Turkey’s has further to run Having cut its policy rate by 15bp to 0.90% earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary’s MPC used the accompanying press release to comment that interest rates would now be left unchanged. In... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May) May’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey indicates that Brexit concerns are still weighing on the retail sector. But the survey has been more pessimistic than the official data recently, so the latest... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Austrian result offers only brief respite from far-right’s rise The election of pro-immigration and -EU Alexander Van der Bellen as Austria’s next president keeps the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) out of office for now. But the FPÖ remain the top party in general... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May) & GDP Breakdown (Q1) The second German GDP release for Q1 confirmed that stronger domestic spending drove a sharp pick-up in overall activity. But May’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment supports our view that growth... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Apr.) The disappointing tone of the latest public borrowing figures ended the recent short run of more upbeat economic data and indicated that the Chancellor has started the fiscal year on the back foot. 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Rupee to weaken only gradually The Indian rupee has weakened against the US dollar over the past month and, with the US Fed likely to tighten policy again over the coming months, the currency could depreciate a little more . But... 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Manufacturing PMI points to sharp slowdown in Q2 The fifth straight drop in the manufacturing PMI in May suggests that economic momentum slowed sharply in the second quarter. 24th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How and where we differ from the consensus While we have consistently been among the most bearish forecasters of EMs over the past 4-5 years, the consensus has moved a long way in our direction over the past 12 months. Over the next year we... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Flash Manufacturing PMIs (May) Preliminary PMIs published by Markit today suggest that manufacturing activity in advanced economies eased in May. Indeed, it looks increasingly likely that economic growth in the euro-zone and Japan... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Surprise rate cut sign of reduced inflation risk The Central Bank of Kenya’s 100bp rate cut (from 11.50% to 10.50%) signals that the Bank believes that inflation is well-anchored. The wide current account deficit will limit the scope for further... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The improvement in the Russian activity data for April, coming on the back of last week’s better-than expected Q1 GDP figures, provides further evidence that the economy is on a slow path to recovery... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Treasury’s Brexit recession warning seems overdone We think the Treasury (HMT) report, published today, suggesting that the UK will go into recession if it leaves the EU goes a bit far. Existing trading relationships will remain in place over the two... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Brexit really be a game-changer for global markets? The trends in the opinion polls and in bookmakers’ odds suggest that a UK vote to leave the EU (“ Brexit ”) would now be a major surprise. Given this, the initial uncertainty caused by Brexit would... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Turning bearish on lead demand Back in February we said that we were cautiously positive on lead demand this year and next. While we remain confident about a tighter supply outlook, we now believe that lead’s demand prospects are... 23rd May 2016 · 1 min read
