How and where we differ from the consensus

While we have consistently been among the most bearish forecasters of EMs over the past 4-5 years, the consensus has moved a long way in our direction over the past 12 months. Over the next year we suspect that it is now more likely that growth surprises on the upside than the downside in most EMs. But many investors have longer horizons and over a 2-3 year timespan the risks are still skewed to the downside.


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