Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q1) Although the plunge in real private capital expenditure in the first quarter has led us to revise down our estimate for first-quarter GDP growth, from 0.8% q/q to 0.6%, the survey probably isn’t weak... 27th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Non-mining investment failing to fill the hole Although GDP growth in Australia in the first quarter probably at least matched the 0.6% q/q rate in the fourth quarter of last year, the continued disappointment is the failure of non-mining... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update More musings on US and European equities As we noted in our Global Markets Update, “How do the valuations of US and European equities stack up?”, which was published on Monday, the stock market in the US can be considered either to be... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor April data dampen hopes for strong rebound The April data were disappointing after earlier signs pointed to strength in the first quarter of the year. Our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth has remained stable rather than accelerated... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The contrasting outlook for new and existing home sales Existing home sales as a share of population have been close to their long-run average since 2013. So while pent-up housing demand suggests they will rise over the next few years, the increase will be... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation prospects diverge as currency and oil price slumps unwind The unwinding effects of big exchange rate falls on import prices will continue to drive down inflation in a number of major EMs over the coming months. In those EMs that haven’t experienced a great... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Further scope for German office values to rise Office values in Germany’s four main cities have risen sharply in recent years. But a strong occupier market suggests that valuations aren’t excessively stretched. Furthermore, with a positive outlook... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Verizon strike to hit May payrolls hard Our econometric model points to a solid 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, but after we allow for the impact of the Verizon strike and other temporary factors, the actual gain in employment was... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Draghi to be dovish but stress that ECB can’t do it all The European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to maintain a dovish tone at its forthcoming policy meeting on 2nd June, forecasting below target inflation and holding open the door to further policy... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The 3.4% m/m surge in durable goods orders in April was principally due to a 64.9% m/m jump in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft component, which will probably be reversed in May. Otherwise... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Staying in the EU would not guarantee a spike in investment deals The consensus within the property sector is that, in the event of a vote to remain within the EU, investment demand and activity would rise significantly in the second half of 2016. However, we think... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabia: riyal devaluation a last resort In spite of the backdrop of the recent recovery in oil prices, which broke through US$50pb today for the first time this year, speculation has mounted that Saudi Arabia will devalue its currency. We... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India’s gold imports (Apr.) Overall demand from the world’s two largest consumers of gold remained subdued in April. While gold imports were more resilient in China, there was a further sharp fall in shipments to India. But we... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Apr.) and Housebuilding (Q1) BBA mortgage data show a temporary slump in lending in April, following the stamp duty surcharge coming into force. And while housing starts fell in Q1, easing production constraints suggest that this... 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP: Second Estimate & Expenditure Breakdown (Q1) Today’s release confirmed that the recovery slowed at the start of 2016 and that growth remains very unbalanced. However, there appears to be more at play than just Brexit uncertainties. 26th May 2016 · 1 min read
