Housing market to cool regardless of Brexit vote

While concerns about the overvaluation of UK housing are nothing new, recent signs that the market is cooling has led some to proclaim that we are on the cusp of a house price crash. Although we don’t share this level of pessimism, we do think that house price growth will moderate over the next few years, regardless of whether or not the UK votes to remain in the EU in this months’ referendum.

There are undoubtedly some temporary factors at play, such as a reversal of the rush to transact ahead of the stamp duty changes in April. And Brexit fears may have played a small part too. However, there is probably a more fundamental slowdown occurring too as affordability constraints and minimum lending standards bite.