Fed’s rate forecasts veering like a drunken sailor

The key US event this week will be Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony to Congress. She will be testifying to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. We expect her to add little to what she had to say in last week’s press conference, particularly as she is appearing before Thursday’s EU referendum vote in the UK. In a relatively quiet week for data releases, we expect to learn that durable goods orders rose slightly in May, with a modest increase in commercial aircraft orders largely offset by a decline in motor vehicle orders.