Emerging Europe Economics Focus Polish deflation: less than meets the eye? The persistent depth of deflation in Poland, particularly when compared with the rest of Central Europe, appears to be due largely to measurement issues, rather than significantly weaker domestic... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation to remain close to target We think that consumer price inflation held steady April as the recent slowdown in food inflation appears to have run its course. With inflation only just below the RBI's 5.0% target for March 2017... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Likely resignation of Turkey’s PM raises authoritarianism fears Reports that Turkey’s Prime Minister, Ahmet Davutoglu, is likely to quit his role amid growing tensions with President Erdogan will reinforce concerns about the shift towards increasingly... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar.) March’s international trade and retail sales data suggest that a boost to GDP growth from net trade probably more than offset an easing in consumption growth in the first quarter. We estimate that... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen reaches fresh highs against dollar The Bank of Japan’s decision to forego additional stimulus at its April meeting was a major disappointment to markets. The yen climbed to fresh highs against the dollar, while the Nikkei slumped. The... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Is the recent rally in PGM prices sustainable? The recent rally in platinum group metals (PGM) prices has been stronger than we had anticipated and may not be sustainable. Indeed, prices have already retraced slightly from their recent peak of a... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Consumers to weather Brexit uncertainty well Consumers face a tougher year than last, with Brexit uncertainty mounting, austerity increasing and inflation rising. Nonetheless, strong levels of confidence and a resilient labour market should... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose again last week despite US oil production experiencing its largest weekly decline this year, and a rise in inputs to refineries. 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EMs, financial risks and the Fed With the Fed leaving the door open to another interest rate hike at June’s FOMC meeting, focus is starting to shift once again to financial vulnerabilities in EMs. A handful of countries are likely to... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update How will the Inflation Report deal with Brexit risk? We doubt that the MPC will model separate ‘remain’ and ‘leave’ scenarios in its Inflation Report next week. But Brexit uncertainty will still affect its forecasts via its assumptions about the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The decline in the trade deficit to a 13-month low of $40.4bn in March, from $47.0bn, was largely due to seasonal distortions created by the shifting date of the New Year holiday in China. 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Despite a 25% m/m rebound in crude oil prices, the much larger than expected merchandise trade deficit in March suggests that the underlying momentum in the economy was weaker than widely assumed... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Applications for refinance and home purchase both increased in April, driven in part by a drop in mortgage interest rates. While an expected increase in rates will dampen refinance activity in the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus About that fiscal hole in Brazil… A combination of modest austerity, elevated inflation and increasing financial repression should keep Brazil’s high and rising public debt burden from becoming a major economic headache over the next... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is consumer spending stronger than we thought? The new measure of consumer spending developed by the Bank of Japan does not appear to be an improvement on the Cabinet Office’s “synthetic consumption index”. In any case, both measures show that... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
