Trade growth was always likely to slow sharply in April after the seasonal surge in March. More positively, the contraction in both exports and imports wasn't as deep last month as it has been over most of the past year. As such, the data is still consistent with our view that the economy is in the early stages of a cyclical recovery. Meanwhile, the People's Bank was able to reduce its FX sales last month thanks to a larger trade surplus and stable capital outflows.
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