The more modest 160,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April will have caught a few people out, after all the consensus forecast was as high as 200,000, but the out-turn was broadly in line with our own 170,000 estimate. Employment was never going to continue rising at more than 200,000 a month indefinitely. Those monthly gains are simply unsustainable in an economy with a potential economic growth rate of less than 2%.
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