EM oil producers unlikely to follow Angola to the IMF

Angola last week became the first EM oil producer to turn to the IMF since oil prices started to fall in 2014. In the near-term, we don’t expect any others to follow suit. External risks in EM oil producers are limited. There are pockets of vulnerability, most notably in Venezuela, Ecuador and Nigeria. But local politics means that these countries are more likely to continue to rely on import restrictions and borrowing from China to address strains in the balance of payments, rather than turn to the Fund.