UK Economics Update Brexit Watch: Sticking to the timetable on Article 50 The Government moved one step closer to triggering Article 50 this week after MPs overwhelmingly voted in favour of its bill. Meanwhile, the latest economic data suggest that the economy has... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty Incoming data indicate that the economy has emerged from the oil price shock, with encouraging signs in business confidence pointing to faster economic growth over the next six months. As things stand... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone inflation is approaching a peak After reaching a 47-month high of 1.8% in January, euro-zone consumer price inflation is set to rise further in the coming months. While we expect headline inflation to surpass the ECB’s near-2%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January’s strong gain in non-farm payrolls suggests that the labour market started the year on a solid footing. However, the drop back in annual wage growth is another reason to think the Fed will... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Where do the risks to the MPC’s forecasts lie? Last week’s Inflation Report saw the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) seemingly abandon “Project Fear” in favour of “Project Optimism”. Indeed, the MPC seemed upbeat on growth prospects and relaxed... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Are investors being complacent? The financial markets have been very calm since Donald Trump entered the White House, despite the controversy surrounding his provocative executive orders and tweets. While this probably reflects the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China and India’s gold demand to remain subdued in 2017 Demand for gold in the two main consumers – China and India – plummeted in 2016 on a combination of higher prices, increased regulation in India and lower appetite for gold jewellery in China. Looking... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards The hawkish statement by the Central Bank of Russia that accompanied today’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold has prompted us to revise up our end-year interest rate forecast (to 8.25%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Moroccan dirham to rise once central bank loosens its grip The spotlight in the region’s currency markets over the past couple of years has been on the threat of large devaluations but, as we explain in this Focus, the risks in Morocco appear to lie in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jan.) January’s Markit/CIPS report on services suggests that the economy lost a little bit of momentum at the start of 2017, following the strong end to 2016. However, the PMI surveys added to signs that... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Dec.) & Final PMIs (Jan.) December’s retail sales data suggest that household spending contributed to the pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth in Q4. And January’s Composite PMI implies that the economy got off to a steady start in... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Industrial & Services Production (Dec.) Both Swedish industrial production and services output growth picked up over Q4 and are thus consistent with a rise in GDP growth. Meanwhile, this morning’s services PMI is consistent with strong... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Repo rate hikes confirm tightening of monetary stance The People’s Bank has raised the interest rate that it charges when providing funds in China’s repo market. This is the clearest evidence so far that monetary policy is being tightened and that... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Could housing be the weak link in 2017? Our economic forecasts point to a supportive backdrop for the housing market in 2017. Nevertheless, there are three potential risks facing the market. These are an interest rate shock, a shift in the... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
