Fed likely to stand pat until June

The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being planned by the Trump administration. Until that time, the Fed won't want to commit itself to a more aggressive pace of interest rate hikes, particularly when PCE inflation is still running slightly below its 2% target. In this context, we doubt that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be much more forthcoming about the timing of the next rate hike in her semi-annual Congressional testimony on February 14th and 15th.