Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka holds rates, but hikes likely soon The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept rates on hold at its meeting today, but against a backdrop of rapid credit growth, rising inflation and a weakening currency, we think it is only a matter of... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Remittance tax probably not Mexico’s biggest problem The public spat between Donald Trump and President Enrique Peña Nieto over who will pay for the proposed border wall has led to some speculation that the US could impose a tax on remittance flows to... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update US foreign policy is a major upside risk for oil prices Donald Trump’s foreign policy, especially regarding the Middle East, is likely to have a bigger impact on oil prices in the near term than changes to domestic energy policies. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How are inflation expectations affecting Treasuries and Bunds? 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, supports our view that, despite the central bank’s recent hawkish rhetoric, interest rates will be lowered substantially this year. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Post-Brexit momentum maintained at the start of 2017 Following a strong end to 2016, the economy appears to have carried a decent amount of momentum over into 2017. Despite a slight fall in the Markit/CIPS all-sector PMI in January, it is still at a... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jan.) Recent data have brought further signs that public finances in the euro-zone’s periphery are improving. But January saw the sharpest monthly rises in bond yields since mid-2015, probably caused by... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Uncertainty – the Brexit dog that hasn’t barked A key reason why the UK economy has proved unexpectedly resilient since the vote for Brexit is that the resulting uncertainty has not had the negative effects that many had anticipated. And there are... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Supply pipeline dampens the outlook for Birmingham office rents Reports highlighting the very high levels of development activity in the Birmingham office market reinforce our view that the city is now poised for a period of underperformance. But in the absence of... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of PMI data suggests that the Gulf’s non-oil sectors have continued to strengthen. Meanwhile, amid high inflation and a big fiscal squeeze, Egypt’s economy is still struggling. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Is the Swiss National Bank tolerating a stronger franc? The recent appreciation of the Swiss franc suggests that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may now be willing to tolerate a (slightly) stronger currency. But we see the franc rising even further to reach... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Dec.) The rise in real retail sales in the fourth quarter suggests that real consumption growth rebounded, but the outright fall in nominal sales in December reveals a worrying lack of momentum heading into... 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth picking up Business surveys point to a pick-up in activity at the beginning of the year, particularly in advanced economies. Indeed, the US economy and labour markets are approaching full capacity even though... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Mixed news for commodity markets Most commodity prices took a bit of a hit this morning as China raised its short-term interest rate, in a clear sign that supporting growth is no longer the primary immediate goal of policymakers... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Metals prices start the year on a strong note The prices of most metals rose last month (see Chart), buoyed by ongoing investor buying and expectations of strong demand in China and the US. The decision by the Fed to keep rates on hold in January... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What use are the new “future output” PMIs? The new “future output” indices, released by Markit alongside their usual complement of PMI data, at best track, rather than lead changes in economic growth. But they do appear to provide a useful... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
